Please, don’t be a stranger, ok?

I’ve come across many articles that put Dallas in a place much better than most larger urban areas as far as depreciation and loss in home sales, due in most part to the steady appreciation Dallas has experienced over the past several years. Areas such as California have shot up so quickly and significantly, the current foreclosure and mortgage crisis combined with other less than desirable market conditions has placed cities in these states in compromising situations where they are vulerable to a bust in the real estate bubble.

And yes, I’d love to chat this week; I’m tied up almost all of Monday but I’ll track you down later in the week.

I’ll be in Charlotte for a few days in the end of June. My dad lives there. I’m always amazed at Charlotte’s strong job growth, affordable housing (certainly by east coast standards) and infrastructure. I may be doing a little research between beers and hamburgers.

The supply of new condos bought by those amateurs you mentioned are now for rent, competing like crazy with the predictable consequences.

Texas? I dropped the fence ‘cuz their fundamentals changed radically. Nobody familiar with the various areas can say their job market is not very diversified now, and that job creation isn’t pretty impressive.

Texas has now become a destination state. I’m a strong advocate as a result of these basic, but hugely positive changes.

The character of Texas has evolved big time. I’m definitely a bull, and not many were harder sells than I was, that’s for sure.

1. Job creation is strong and growing.

2. Job diversification is now very impressive and statewide in nature. The Texas of today isn’t much like it was 20 years ago.

3. The population is now also undergoing a change — more and more they’re transplants. Folks are moving their on purpose, and smiling.

4. The state itself and the cities/counties are massively pro business which is now being reflected in the billions pouring in because of it.

5. Ironically, it reminds me of San Diego a little bit, after we lost two huge employers in the middle of the S & L crisis. It turned out to be a blessing in disguise, as we’re now far more diversified in our employment, and not nearly as vulnerable to problems in defense spending for instance. Texas is making itself far less open to problems in energy than in years past. Investors have seen this and responded with pictures of dead presidents.

I’m not sure what you mean by “when rents come back” in Phoenix. Rents and tenant quality went down and vacancy went up in 2004 through mid 2006, when anyone with a pulse could (and did) buy a house. Rents started to come back in late 2006, although not in a straight line. Rents generally went up in 2007, and have pretty much stabilized at their old levels. A few places have done better - think Tempe and a few other close in locations with the schools and amenities folks want.

If you are thinking of rents as a percentage of value, the price drops have helped the ratio. However, I haven’t seen one percent per month since sometime around late 1997 and I don’t expect to see it anytime soon. Rental vacancy rates are down, but there are still too many amateur landlords out there betting on appreciation and not worrying about cash flow. In addition, a lot of tenants will become buyers again as prices and financing availability stabilize.

I have to say I’m surprised you dropped the fence around Texas and are now the “Texas Evangelist.” To me, Texas is like Florida - wildly cyclical. I still see most cities in Texas as having undiversified economies with no physical or governmental limits to growth. Can you be more specific in identifying the factors that changed your mind?