What Real Estate Investment Strategy Works In Slloooowly Appreciating Markets?

Posted @ 10:59 pm - Filed under Real Estate Investing, Purposeful Planning, Retirement, Real Estate Markets, Cash Flow, Retirement Income, Investment Lessons, Capital Growth, BawldGuy Axiom

You know the kinda place I’m talkin’ about. I joke about it all the time. Around here it’s known as East Toilet Seat, Wisconsin. Buy an income property there, and five years later it’s either worth the same, or gone up just enough to pay the costs of selling, and break even. Like I said, slloooow. This is why we do so well with investors in those type areas, ‘cuz folks often have capital but no place for it to grow. We make it easy for them to export their hard earned investment capital safely. Makes plenty of sense, but not everybody wants to travel that road. They’d rather stay local. For most that’s a huge long term mistake in those kinda markets. Why? ‘Cuz you’re forced to grow your capital almost exclusively through expertise, technique, and courage.

Therefore, in those markets, any strategy relying upon appreciation in general should be discarded out of hand. It’s a failure just achin’ for a sucker to grab hold.

If it can be reasonably assumed an area won’t exceed 1-2% annual appreciation, here’s what the real estate investor’s lookin’ at.

The Lips

Buy at $200,000 and hold for about five years at 2% annual appreciation. In those five long years you made a whole $21,000 — and I rounded up. :) After sales costs you can take the family for a week’s vacation to lovely Lemon Grove, California — just a $4 cab ride away from the famous Lips.

Yet at 5% for the same five years, you make over $55,000 — or, put in simpler terms — net of sales costs, your initial capital was multiplied by about 2½ times.

On the surface it doesn’t make sense does it? But in practice 5% vs 2% is analogous to Lions vs the Christians. (I can say that without fear, ‘cuz I’m a preacher’s kid.)

So what do ya do?

We’ll talk about that tomorrow so it can be developed. But it isn’t anything new. It’s just controlling property through either lease options or contracts of sale. (Called contracts for deed in some regions.)

What’s new? That would be the actual growing of your capital in a market devoid of any real appreciation in property values. It can be done, and in fact it’s done all the time by folks just like you. The difference between success and failure in these approaches is the same as in everything I try to impart here: Having a Purposeful Plan.

Again though, I caution anyone considering the execution of lease options and/or contracts for sale. They’re not for wannabes or faux Trumps. You better know exactly what yer doin’ or the market will quickly show you what should have been done instead.

BawldGuy Axiom: Grandma said, “The farmer who plants wheat in the spring is not surprised when harvesting wheat in autumn.” Translation: Invest in real estate located in growth areas, and ya won’t be shocked when yer net worth grows impressively.

Harvesting wheat

95% of people are far better suited for investing their capital wherever the return is best. That requires a growth region. This isn’t new stuff, is it? Capital growth is the engine that drives us to a magnificently abundant retirement income. ‘Cuz when ya boil it all down? All cash flow is, is a yield on capital, right? And the more capital you have, the bigger the yield. DUH moans the crowd. Duh indeed.

So using time and capital growth synergistically will result in a ginourmous basket of capital right about the time yer gettin’ ready to sail into the sunset. What a koinkie dink. Hint: That’s why going for cash flow when you’re far from retiring actually retards what yer building for retirement cash flow. It’s what we in the business call a paradox.

OK, tomorrow we’ll talk a little about my East Toilet Seat real estate investment strategy. (Say that three times as fast as you can.)

Ready to get serious about your retirement? Then this Contact BawldGuy thingy is just for you. Click it. You’ll figure out the rest. We’ll have a very cool conversation about the when and how much of your retirement. Have a good one.

This entry was posted on Monday, August 18th, 2008 at 10:59 pm and is filed under Real Estate Investing, Purposeful Planning, Retirement, Real Estate Markets, Cash Flow, Retirement Income, Investment Lessons, Capital Growth, BawldGuy Axiom. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

11 comments to “What Real Estate Investment Strategy Works In Slloooowly Appreciating Markets?”

Robert Coté on August 19th, 2008 at 12:26 pm said:

  • I don’t see the point of your example of “buying” at $200,000 when you can purchase for $50,000 and carry a mortgage. Your $50k at 2%/yr turns into $71k in 5 years (40% return). Likewise your $50k at 5% turns into $105k or a 110% return. More realistic IMO.

    But that’s not why I write. Oh oracle, thee of the perfect crystal ball… Are you at all nervous about oil patch exposed investments? This in context of “past performance is not indicator of future returns” type stuff.

BawldGuy on August 19th, 2008 at 12:33 pm said:

  • Think you’re workin’ with different numbers than I. As far as the oil patch goes, I’m not even daring to enter that fray. Stayin’ on sidelines until picture ‘clears up’.

    The whole past performance/future returns mistake might be about to hurt some folks.

BawldGuy on August 19th, 2008 at 1:58 pm said:

  • Robert — The comparison of 2% to 5% was for the same $200,000 investment, all else being equal.

    Just showing the difference between the two appreciation rates is all. Haven’t shifted into ‘fancy’ yet. :)

Joshua on August 19th, 2008 at 8:25 pm said:

  • I have two things to say:

    1. So THHHHAAATTTSS how you spell koinkie dink.

    2. Walk down and get them all.

BawldGuy on August 19th, 2008 at 8:31 pm said:

  • grin

Dax Desai on August 20th, 2008 at 9:21 am said:

  • I think income investments are still good. If anything some investments such as multi-family are at very attractive yields. With proper leverage one can handily get double-digit returns. You have to now be selective. My strategy is to forget appreciation. I’m not looking for a 2-5% appreciation per year. I’m looking at immediate cashflow investments. My projects all target 15-20% returns. So far I’m happy to say none of my investments have neither depreciated nor appreciated, but my returns are above 15%/year in income. I’ll take that any day over the stock market.

Joshua on August 20th, 2008 at 10:10 am said:

  • Dax makes a good point. Maybe I’m sticking my delicate inexperienced neck out here but if you settle for using only income you’ll only get just that.. income.

    How many buildings can you buy with a cash flow of negative $100 per month? As many as your day job can afford and how long your sanity holds out.

    But how many can you buy with a $100 positive cash flow each month? It’s virtually unlimited.

    However, what I think Jeff is getting at is if you want to retire with a passive yearly income equal to that of a small country then you NEED great appreciation to do so.

    If this were a horse race Dax your horse would finish with, or slighly ahead, of the main pack. But it’s Jeff’s purposeful plan and getting outta dodge mentality to earn those high appreciation rates (plus cash flow where possible) that will get you far ahead of the pack.. so much so that you could stop at the finish line, turn around, and root the rest of them on.

BawldGuy on August 20th, 2008 at 10:12 am said:

  • Dax — You are SO preachin’ to the choir. Comparing the returns available in real estate to the stock market is unfair in the best light, and laughable lately.

    Your cash flow based returns are what those close to retirement lust after for sure. Also, beginning investors grow their capital as they keep their eyes on the ultimate cash flow prize.

    Thanks Dax — don’t be a stranger.

BawldGuy on August 20th, 2008 at 10:17 am said:

  • Josh — Dax is a seasoned investor and businessman, who knows of what he speaks. He’s just ahead of most folks on the food chain, ‘cuz he has the capital to generate the cash flow now.

    He knows exactly what he’s doin’, just as you imply.

310guy on September 1st, 2008 at 10:53 am said:

  • I do agree with Dax. However for some one who is young, I see this as an opportunity of a lifetime - as such, how would you guys invest today or in the months to come - for a lifetime of holding? Or How should one go about this? Should an investor not be concerned about the long term; because of the short term pain in the credit/real estate markets?

BawldGuy on September 1st, 2008 at 11:19 am said:

  • 310 — This is a time of great opportunity. A young investor should be looking for capital growth. The older you get, the more money yer gonna be makin’ at yer day job. Realistically, you’ll be making more money five years from now. Every 5-10 years you’ll be making more money.

    The point: While chasing cash flow while your ‘day job’ income keeps rising, you’re retarding the growth of your capital — when you don’t need the cash flow to live. This ultimately retards the size of your retirement income.

    The most common mistake of those investing in real estate for the purpose of their retirement is to first go after cash flow. Don’t make that mistake.

    Those who are young going after cash flow — tend to use it. Meanwhile, their capital is either stagnating or growin’ at a snail’s pace. Retirement comes, and their stuck with whatever level of cash flow they have at that point. I’ve seen it too many times.

    Hope this has helped. Enjoy your day.

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