We’re All Gonna Die IV — Now Showing Everywhere We Go
Posted @ 11:29 pm - Filed under Market Correction, Economy, Predictions
Today let’s talk about the movie we’re all watching and in which we’re all actors.
When giant Wall Street financial firms write off monster losses, direct lenders go down in flames, oil prices translate into nearly $5 gas, and every chart we see seems to tell us to bend over and kiss our butts goodbye, I know we’re watching the latest sequel to We’re All Gonna Die.
I’ve seen this movie several times. I know how it ends. Warning Warning Warning — this post contains spoiler.
Fortunately much of what I have to say today is about stuff that’s already happened, and is beyond debate. What I’m gonna predict as the ending can be debated ’till ya can’t keep yer eyes open any longer. My crystal ball is perpetually cracked, and you’ve never come here and read me claiming otherwise.
Still, I have seen the dang flick a few times before, and the ending is always the same. We’re not at the end of the movie just yet, so let’s table the talk about that a bit. Besides, I wanna make sure you know I’m gonna spoil it for you. So don’t act all crazy when I do. Stop readin’ now if ya don’t wanna know. Lord knows it’s not my intention to mess up yer movie goin’ pleasure.
There are three reels to this film. We’re just beginning the last one. The first reel developed the story line and many of the characters. In essence, the economy is the star. We’re all extras. The second reel brought in the real angst and pain. Stock market goes south in a big way. Lenders teeter on the edge of disaster. Regular folk are suffering financially — not even nearly most of them, but easily enough to be a huge problem. Foreclosure rates are enough to make that point without debate. ‘Nuff said there.
The best part of most movies, at least the ones we really liked, is found in the last reel. Duh.
Irrelevant Note: Bruce Willis never looked better than in the last Die Hard movie. Just sayin’
As we enter this last reel, things just can’t get any worse. Of course that’s how most movies go, right? Then it immediately does get worse. In this case, it not only gets worse, but mainstream media does it’s best to bring copious amounts of $5 gas to pour on the bonfire of eminent disaster, fanning the flames as they go. The media plays a recurring role in all these sequels. The pressure tightens, and the tension becomes almost unbearable. That’s when they give you the signal. It’s incredibly subtle if they’re good at it. But the signal let’s you know just how Bruce Willis is gonna single handedly outsmart the bad guys, and save the day.
Let’s quickly review an earlier version of this film.
It starred inflation, staggeringly high interest rates, a crushing recession, and a presidential election where the winner came back from 20 points down to win goin’ away. In the first reel there was incredible real estate appreciation, a hostage crisis, oil problems, you name it. Once interest rates went to the mid to high teens, including prime rate, it didn’t look good for the guys in the white hats.
Then came the subtle signal. The hint that maybe, just maybe all was not lost. Even with hostages, 16.5% FHA interest, lines at the gas pump, almost zero real estate being transacted, and everyone in the Middle East misbehaving, there was The Signal.
The third reel of that movie let us in on the ever so subtle signal. It showed a very comfortable 19 point lead by the incumbent president going down verrrrrry slowly but steadily over a several week period. Soon the mood of the country began to change, as citizens started lookin’ at things differently. It was almost ethereal, but still so real. Before you knew what was happening, real estate was movin’ again ‘cuz interest rates had fallen to only slightly painful levels. Blah blah blah. The ‘blah’ period was almost three years.
Fast forward to our current movie’s last reel.
We’ve seen a real estate boom. A stock market run up. Hedge funds running amok. A new Fed Chairman. Income tax cuts. Historically low unemployment. Then in the second reel a slow down, which then gained momentum. Lender problems became commonplace, as underwriting policies simultaneously tightened in classic Draconian style. A huge Wall Street firm was saved by the powers that be, mostly the Fed, in the last minute of the second reel.
The third reel begins with the usual — what couldn’t possibly get worse, does. Prices at the pump soar to unheard of levels, at least for Americans. Regular in some regions is way over $4.50/gallon. Lender programs are disappearing overnight. General Motors is shown to be less than the unbeatable giant it’s always been. Outside of Superman tryin’ to angle in for a kiss on on the first date , it just couldn’t get any worse.
But of course, it does. A potential year long Bear stock market shows up. Fannie Mae and her best beau Freddie also take a nose dive. Europe seems to be reading from a different script, Friday The 13th Part XXIV I think. And then it comes. The Signal. Now before I give the ending away, you have this last warning to stop reading. It’s a real spoiler, and I don’t wanna feel bad.
What’s this subtle signal? Well, I’m keepin’ that to myself, at least for awhile, ‘cuz I’d like to hear what you think it might be. But here’s the ending — and no, the butler didn’t do it. 
As in each of these films, all seems lost. Then out of nowhere, those in correctly positioned seats of power, as if in an almost simultaneous, but choreographed manner, recover their cranial compartments from hitherto unknown dark places. This surprising, some might even say startling development tips the ending. Just like a Bruce Willis thriller, the ideas start flying, the IQ’s scream to the top of the chart, and Shazam! what the title promised is foiled yet again. It’s at this point the music gets really loud.
Just like all the previous sequels, We All DON’T Die. The audience has been put through the ringer yet again, but is ecstatic with the ending, showing their approval by applauding the screen as the closing song blares and the credits roll.
Amazingly enough, the door is left open every so slightly, allowing all of us to speculate about when casting will start for We’re All Gonna Die V
The ending has been the same for this movie every time I’ve lived through it. The players change. The crisis is different. Interest rates skyrocket. They remain historically low. The one common denominator is the ending. Nobody dies. The world returns to what passes as normal. Everyone in power says they’re gonna put new checks and warnings into the system to avoid this ‘near disaster’ ever happening again.
Predicting the ending to this latest sequel is as difficult as saying the sun’s gonna set in the west tomorrow.
Sorry for spoiling it for you, but I can’t get excited by such a tired formulated script. However, I do give this version a ★★★ rating for at least some new material. Giving loans to borrowers working as teachers claiming annual salaries of $150,000 — with no proof of income? Who woulda thunk it? A brilliant twist to the normal hackneyed formula.
Tell me what you think the signal is, was, or will be for this sequel. Please don’t try to convince me of a different ending. I already admitted up front how cracked my crystal ball is. Yours is cracked too, no matter what those voices keep telling you.
So hey, since we’re all not gonna die, let’s talk. Call or email me and we’ll talk about making a blockbuster movie about your retirement. Now there’s a movie worth makin’.
This entry was posted on Thursday, July 10th, 2008 at 11:29 pm and is filed under Market Correction, Economy, Predictions. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
