I’ve thought for quite awhile we’d see signs in the 3rd & 4th quarters of a potential bottom.

Now, in very hard hit places like Phoenix and San Diego, we’re seeing the beginnings of the correction losing steam. First, SD was taken off the ‘declining market’ list. Not a bad sign. Then we started seeing 1-2,000 REO’s monthly in Phoenix sold. About 20-30% of them via multiple offers for more than listed price. Same now happening in SD.

Was Zell on the money? Doesn’t look like it. Are we maybe lookin’ at the correction slowin’ down in preparation for a U-Turn? I think it could be more likely than not.

Whether this is pent up demand from last year or a return to some balance in the market remains to be seen. My own (stikingly myopic) financial analysis gives me some concern about what I see as a potential debacle for many main stream lenders.

The sub-prime “crisis” was mostly a press driven frenzy. But I (as well as the Great and Powerful Oz over at Mortgage Rates Report) have been reporting on Countrywide’s demise since last April. I don’t think they’re the only ones by a long shot. Wall Street does not take kindly to accounting problems and they definitely don’t care for companies that restate their earnings (ask New Century). I am more than a little nervous that both of these problems are going to plague the neg-am lenders in the coming months. Just my 2 cents’ worth.

Buying in the obviously growing areas where employers are expanding and the cost of living is far lower than California and other extremes, still make sense to buy this year — big time. Those who wait, in my view, will literally pay the price.

I’ll assume you meant “investors walk away empty handed FROM foreclosure sales” and it was just too much KC BBQ sauce that caused your fingers to slip.

I will concede that the investor versus owner occupant competition for REO properties is no contest in favor of the OO for now. I judge that good for “gettin’ outta Dodge” on the last stagecoach but don’t see what it says about the national investing climate for buying anytime in 2008.

Let me buy you a half-a-rack at Buster’s next time you are in Ventura County. You’ll think you’ve died and gone to Kansas City.

Saying Zell is an advanced investor/businessman is like saying Michael Jordon could dribble well.

Thanks for comin’ by Allan — don’t be a stranger.

I love this guy Sam Zell - he’s just so funny and sharp. Zell is the real estate investment billionaire who sold his Equity Office Properties Trust to the Blackstone Group for $39 billion in the early part of 2007. He recently bought the Tribun…

Layman perception goes a long way — good, bad, or ugly.

Same thing for REOs. I’m getting first hand reports from our state to Florida. Of course some are more active states than others, but you get the point.

I do now. Thanks. I also agree that REO pricing is remarkably firm in every market I am following including the bubble zones. Just to present some balance; my sister just closed on a combination rental/vacation property on Cape Cod and I didn’t discourage her based on my analysis of her goals of acceptable cash flow and personal use and capital exposure/potential.