9 comments to “Mainstream Media Predicts 11 of the last 4 Recessions — San Diego Income Property Owners”

Robert Coté on July 19th, 2008 at 6:53 am said:

• It never occurred to me that “amateur” might rankle. I’ll try harder to be less provocative. Its possible to be a pro right from the start. Tiger Woods is an example. Most of us have to win a few and lose a lot before turning pro. That doesn’t mean we were ever bad as amateurs. I think what rankles is that the recent bubble managed to paper over some real boneheaded investor decisions that ended up making money anyway thus giving participants the false impression that it was their expertise that was the cause. Those kinds of people don’t want to learn they aren’t good merely lucky. And don’t think professional is any honor to hang on the wall as the LA Times story about a flipper couple attests.
  http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homesales17-2008jul17,0,3250369.story
  http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/07/theyre-back-ret.html
  For some reason these sucessful flippers failed both a foreclosure and bankruptcy as part of their program.

  Now the part you don’t like, corrections. The NBER does not define recession as two or more negative quarters. From their 2003 publication:

  http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html

BawldGuy on July 19th, 2008 at 9:59 am said:

• Geez Robert, as if I don’t hafta read enough every day.

  I don’t mind you bringing up NBER. Their formula/definition of recession hasn’t been adopted for even narrow use ‘cuz if it was, we’d have had far more recessions than we already do.

  A boom is over, and things settle down — BOOM! — it’s a recession. MSM would love, does love NBER’s definition. Their problem is they can’t sell that definition in their stories. Even the NY Times can’t get that by the ’smell test’.

  That’s not to say NBER isn’t credible, far from it. But when something as important to the nation’s perception as the definition of recession is largely based on subjective judgment — it’s just not gonna be accepted.

  All that said? I think you and I will agree on the main concept here. No, there hasn’t been a recession based upon objective criteria, i.e., the two quarters approach. But has the economy been teasin’ us for the last several months? Yep. Have many respected economists predicted recession? Yep.

  In the end, Robert, the nation’s economy still hasn’t hit that point yet. It might, but that little spot in the back of my brain hasn’t started vibratin’ yet.

  The rest is fuel for debate on subjective criteria — at least it is if one is gonna be objective.

  Love ya man.

BawldGuy on July 19th, 2008 at 10:04 am said:

• As far as the term ‘amateur’ rankling some, I speak from experience. Human nature dictates investment failure is never their doing. Therefore calling themselves amateurs isn’t an option for many.

  On the other hand, the overwhelming majority of folks who join Brown and Brown as clients begin by declaring their amateur status with an easily discernible tone of relief in their voices.

  They’d prefer making decisions objectively, and after careful analysis.

Joshua on July 19th, 2008 at 3:56 pm said:

• Congrats to your daughter! One of my favorite songs!

Todd Tarson on July 20th, 2008 at 8:34 am said:

• Normally when I go see a movie with a person who has already seen the same movie, but wants to see it again, I let them know that they are not to speak to me during said movie.

  However, Jeff, this movie is different. I never really paid much attention to this genre before. I was too busy living the good (single) life in Vegas and issues like the economy… well… lets just say words like economy only meant something if a dash separated that word and ’sized’ for instance (especially at the liquor store).

  I just want to thank you a bit for letting a couple of the cats out of the bag so far (whether here or at my site in the comments). Very much appreciated by me… and it makes me appreciate this movie more than I think it normally would.

  A classic action movie came out 20 years ago called Die Hard (I think some have heard of it). Well there was a character in that movie named Richard Thornberg and he represented the media. The character was played by William Atherton and I truly hope he gets the role for this ‘movie’ as well… as we all know what happens to the character at the end.

Jeff Brown on July 20th, 2008 at 11:29 am said:

• Thanks so much, Todd. Atherton nailed that part.
  Problem is, there are so many media folk who are perfect to play it.

Todd Tarson on July 20th, 2008 at 12:04 pm said:

• I don’t think it is that big of a problem as there’s plenty of folks that would line up to play the Bonnie Bedelia part at the end.

BawldGuy on July 20th, 2008 at 12:11 pm said:

• LOL Millions for sure.

David Shafer on July 21st, 2008 at 2:09 pm said:

• Much of the argument over whether a recession or not is simply straw men argument. Here is what we know for sure. The economy cycles up and back down. The overall pattern is slowly rising as a whole. For sub-sets within the whole it is a different story as there are real winners and losers (the middle class is currently on the losing end). The arguments should be about the intensity of the ups and downs, not their existence. The Fed’s for all its mistakes attempts to keep the intensity of the cycles down. Capital, because it can adjust quickly, wants higher intensity. Workers prefer more stability. Politicians pander to capital, hoping the economy goes straight up without the inevitable down cycle and then attempts to “cool out” the workers during the down cycle. We are coming off a very intense up cycle. So what do you think the down cycle will look like?

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