If There’s No Appreciation the Next 5 Years, How Will You Do?

Posted @ 12:53 am - Filed under Cool Info

Here’s an example, using real properties recently purchased by real clients. I’m gonna modify some of the numbers, but the modifications will not in any way make the bottom line better by an inch.

What if you paid $250,000 for 4 properties, each with an annual gross scheduled income of $28,800.4 The renters sign year long leases, and tend to stay a little longer than two years. We’ll set the operating expenses and vacancies at just under 40% — $10,080 a year. This results, when using currently available loans, in a negligible cash flow of less than $100 monthly — essentially a break even.

The down payment used will be 10%, though I’ll use 11% for any return figures. In these transactions you’ll be credited up to 2% of the sales price for your closing costs. We’ll further assume the rents and expenses will not alter the first year’s cash flow of $1,135 or so for each property. We’ll also assume any increases in expenses will serve to cancel out any rent increases. The loans are fixed rate, amortizing, with a 6.25% interest rate.

If in five years the value is still $250,000 — what will you have gained? Of course, you didn’t invest to find yourself in a non-appreciating asset. Since your crystal ball is in the shop, we’ll just consider it your time in Murphy’s barrel. :) 5

So, what will you have gained in this scenario?

  • Income tax savings of around $3,500 a year, or $17,500 over 5 years
  • Before tax cash flow of $1,135 annually, or $5,675 over 5 years
  • Principal reduction of $15,000 (9 bucks less) over 5 years
  • It took about $27,500 +/- to close each of the four purchases, meaning you’ve invested a total of $110,000. In 5 years without values increasing, here’s what happened.

    Add up your 5 year total for tax saving

    This entry was posted on Monday, January 14th, 2008 at 12:53 am and is filed under Cool Info. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

    17 comments to “If There’s No Appreciation the Next 5 Years, How Will You Do?”

    Chris Johnson on January 14th, 2008 at 4:16 am said:

    • THIS is the way to use numbers to sell.

    Chris Lengquist on January 14th, 2008 at 7:17 am said:

    • Buy on fundamentals and you won’t end up a sad statistic.

    BawldGuy on January 14th, 2008 at 9:51 am said:

    • Chris J — Thanks so much.

      About 15 years ago I refused attempting to ‘close’ clients. Since I didn’t wanna be treated that way, the assumption was they didn’t either. What they DID want was someone who’d stay with them, advise them with their situation in mind, and real honest to goodness expertise.

      They soon realize what I’m saying fits them as investors both long and short term. This whole culture of ‘overcoming objections’ and ‘10 quick ways’ to close a sale is not only nonsense to a real pro, but an insult to the client.

      When clients first see the reality of their interest coming first, coupled with experience, knowledge, and expertise — they relax big time. One of the main reasons for that is not having to defend against being sold or closed.

      Don’t be a stranger, Chris.

    BawldGuy on January 14th, 2008 at 9:52 am said:

    • Chris L — Pretty much. :)

    Wednesday links 01-16-2008 | Real Central VA on January 16th, 2008 at 4:27 am said:

    • [...] If there’s no appreciation for the next 5 years, how will you do? An excellent article by one of my favorite real estate investor writers. [...]

    BawldGuy on January 16th, 2008 at 7:42 pm said:

    • Thanks Jim — you’re one of my favs too. :)

    Alf Landen on January 18th, 2008 at 11:03 am said:

    • Interesting, but wish you’d make a chart to express costs/categories more clearly…

      If I understand this right, adding all “benefits” and dividing by $110K “investment” (mostly downpayment), yields about 38% over 5 years, or maybe a little under 7.5% per year.

      Unmentioned is the time & effort of servicing these 4 properties… whether it’s going under the sink yourself at 8am on a Saturday, or finding out why your Mr. Fixit didn’t fix it.

      An S&P index fund in last 5 years (dividends reinvested) would beat this return with 9.37% annually, with 0 risk of banging your head on the counter – those figures are “real” (adjusted for CPI inflation).

    BawldGuy on January 18th, 2008 at 12:53 pm said:

    • First ‘Alf’ — love the historical name you’ve chosen. Your approach reminds me of that guy’s political winning percentage. :) I’m kidding of course, but it’s surely the longer way to get to point B, isn’t it. As long as you have enough time though, your way will absolutely get you there.

      The difference is the real estate investor over the same 20-35 year period will be avoiding more income taxes in retirement than your approach will produce in gross income.

      >Unmentioned is the time & effort of servicing these 4 properties… whether it’s going under the sink yourself at 8am on a Saturday, or finding out why your Mr. Fixit didn’t fix it.

      Only unmentioned by an amateur. :) Seriously, considering the properties used in the illustration are brand spanking new, and the operating expenses used in the example allowed for out of state ownership — i.e. precluding any under the sink crawling, your argument in this case is fatuous. Put another way, i think you should stick with the S & P.

      All these properties have to do to speed past your single digit return is to appreciate radically — about 1-3% a year.

      Real estate investing certainly isn’t for everyone. You sound pretty knowledgeable when it comes to the stock market. A 9.37% return without having to put up with anything but coupon clipping is attractive to many.

      Thanks for dropping by Alf.

    David Shafer on September 20th, 2008 at 5:56 am said:

    • Pretty funny! Turns out that 5 year period is exactly the time of the S & P 500 going up. Before and after it drops, dramatically. Wonder what he thinks about his rate of return now?

    Michael Cook on September 25th, 2008 at 11:09 am said:

    • Wonder what that real estate investor thinks of his/her deprecation now David??? The funny thing about leverage is that it cuts both ways. As properties decline in value and the mortgage stays the same, the equity losses are magnified. There are a lot of people that have seen their equity values wiped out completely in this market, while the stock investor may have only lost 5-10%. Short answer, I think he is feeling pretty darn good right now, actually.

    David Shafer on September 25th, 2008 at 11:32 am said:

    • Really Michael, then why are mutual fund outflows at a all time high? Seems to me most people are not feeling to well right now about their equity losses!

      As to real estate, if you didn’t overpay according to commonly used metrics, depreciation means nothing in the short term because your property is still cash flowing. And as long as your property is still cash flowing your depreciation is limited because the cash flow (and cap rates)is how investors (not speculators) assign value to investment real estate. Stop using amateur speculators as a straw man in your arguments. Ask Bawld Guy how his clients are doing? Because I know myself and my clients who have been taught how to become an investor (real estate, equities, whatever) are doing just fine! Even one of my homes, which is in Florida, one of the epicenters for loss of value since 2006, is up over 110% since I bought in in 2000!

    Michael Cook on September 26th, 2008 at 1:08 pm said:

    • Amateur speculators?!

      A lot of people lost money in the latest real estate crash, not just the speculators. Certainly there were astue investors that are doing just fine, just like there are astue stock market players that are doing just fine.

      I am talking averages here. If the average median home price drops 10%, then the average home investor, particularly the ones that invested in 2006 and 2007 lost a lot of money. Using the leverage argument that we love to use here, the stock market investor would have only lost 10%, while a real estate investor would lose 50%+.

    David Shafer on September 26th, 2008 at 1:45 pm said:

    • Michael, I will try to explain myself one last time.

      The value of investment real estate is based primarily on rental income. When you look at purchasing investment real estate you buy on metrics that define the cost you are willing to pay based on return on investment that you are trying to achieve. Only amateurs base purchase price on what the “housing market” is at that time. If the housing market (like here in Florida) is too high to support the rate of return you are looking to achieve you don’t buy. You have an option to look elsewhere where the numbers might make more sense. Your “average home value” is a meaningless statistic since no one is buying a “average home.” RE investors don’t depend upon immediate appreciation to bail them out of negative cash flow situations or short term debt/income ratio’s that are off the chart.

      Now if after you buy an investment property there is a drop in rental income, then you can have a paper loss in value. So the proper metric to look at in what you can rent the property for and that can certainly drop. But those judgements on rental value is what makes a good investor from a average investor.
      If you have reserves to last through any downturn and you did a good job looking at the rental value up front, the leverage simply doesn’t hurt you.
      Same in stock investing by the way. If you are a good judge of cash flow for a particular business (Warren Buffett is the best in the world at this) then any downturn is only temporary and if you have reserves to get you through (assuming some leverage used) then you are fine.

      Now who lost money in the latest real estate crash. Only those that have to sell in this market and who bought in 2005-2007 or who can’t make their payments because they were speculating on rapid appreciation being there to bail them out of their cash flow deficit. Sorry, but don’t think that someone that buys a property with a negative cash flow starting out knows what they are doing. There are professional re investors making money in areas that are depressed like Detroit or even here in Florida because they knew what they were doing.

      Can even professional re investors lose money every now and then? Of course just as Mr. Buffett has bought a couple of dogs in his career. But the reality is that folks make money in real estate even in down markets and if you pay attention to the metrics then you will win many times more than lose!

    David Shafer on September 26th, 2008 at 1:51 pm said:

    • All this talk of risk has given an idea for a post on risk. Maybe bawld guy will let me post it on his blog as well as mine!

    BawldGuy on September 26th, 2008 at 2:01 pm said:

    • Dave, since you just saved me so much time in with your answer to Michael, you write it, and I’ll publish it here too.

      Now THAT’S what I call a good day.

    Michael Cook on September 27th, 2008 at 4:46 am said:

    • David,

      I understand what you are saying, heck, I made most of my money in the Detroit real estate market and I wish I was still their to capitalize on this down turn. I just think you give an average investor too much credit. Much like there are very few Warren Buffets out there, there are very few great investors. Real Estate investing is rife with people who buy courses or just follow the crowd, as is stock market investing.

    David Shafer on September 27th, 2008 at 5:44 am said:

    • Yes, you are absolutely right. These weekend seminar folks are what I call amateur speculators! Amateur because they don’t use metrics for ascertaining value and speculators because they are in a hurry to make their millions. However, I believe that with some guidance up front, the average person can learn how to invest in re or stocks. It is not that difficult, just do what people before have done to create wealth. Bawld Guy’s clients are using his experience and guidance. I let Warren Buffett invest much of my money for me because I can’t get the deals he gets! I follow his advice and strategies for my other investments. I listen to folks like Bawld Guy and others in the re business for my real estate investments.

      And that is how I teach people to invest. Learn how to apply the time tested metrics, think about the macro trends, have reserves, invest long term, build a plan that can get you where you want to go, listen to [real] experts, and always continuous learning, etc.

      Personally, I think it is foolproof, but you might disagree with me. But we both are in total agreement that folks that are following the herd (mutual fund investors or house flippers) are going to end up exactly where the herd is going! And that is not a pretty sight!

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