Grandma Was Right ‘Cuz Normal Trumps Murphy Every Time
Posted @ 12:08 am - Filed under Sez Me, Market Correction, Predictions, RE Investment Practice
In exactly six more months I’ll have 39 years as a licensee. In that time I’ve not seen it all, but have seen a bunch. Booms, busts, double digit interest rates, changes in the tax laws, more tax law changes, and that’s not even the tip of the iceberg. They all have a common thread.
Normal returned.
In the face of all the crazy things we’ve all seen in the last couple generations, pretty soon normal seeks us out. Grandma told me it always has, and always will. That from a woman married and having four kids in the Great Depression. Normal always wins out.
Ever felt like the end of the tunnel, or just around the bend had a freight train headin’ your way? When Murphy visits us we can lose sight of the big picture. It happens to the best of us.
We’ve all seen how people respond to bad times. Some surprise us with their courage and ability to slog through sometimes unfair circumstances. We can do we can, but it’s just not in the stars for us to be in control all the time. This is one of those times.
An answer to this using microcosm might help.
Murphy’s Law says (paraphrased) — Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong, and probably at the worst time and in the worst way.
Ever heard of O’Toole’s corrolary? Murphy was an optimist.
That’s been my more or less daily experience the last month or so. Appraisers who can’t find comps under their noses. Or how ’bout when the same appraiser finally gets his act together (by being spoon fed by a local pro) and decides to call the project in question a Planned Unit Development (PUD) when it is no such thing? Numbers sent by others are incorrect. Human error, not lack of skill. It happens. It’s true, sometimes you can’t make stuff like that up, ‘cuz nobody would believe it.
What sets people apart is how they react when things begin to feel unfair. The last few weeks have been one thing after another, some of which has served to make me look like an idiot. And by the way? Some of those mistakes have been mine. It happens. Sometimes things just aren’t slidin’ yer way. There’s not a thing I can do but correct mistakes. Grandma said there’d be days like this, but she didn’t say they’d come in bunches.
In the last three weeks I’ve been given erroneous information/data by very smart, highly trained and experience pros. Statements of facts were incorrect; numbers were wrong; simple stuff; complex stuff; my kingdom for — normal.
Sometimes being the ‘go to’ guy, which I certainly am, means you have to accept the fact that those not under your control can make you appear uh, not as brilliant and wonderful as you’d prefer. Murphy laughs in the background while this happens. He generally does this to me about once a year. This year he picked spring for my time in the barrel.
Being a good soldier, I take the blame. People don’t wanna hear my sad tale of woe. They want results. 98% of the time I’m able to say ‘this will happen’ and then make it so. After the last few weeks I’m not sure I can still make cold cereal by myself.
Are you done with me Murph? Yer killin’ me here.
Murphy’s been at me like a hound dog on a pork chop. But I sense normal is returning. Lessons have been relearned. It’s the human condition. Meanwhile, you don’t get a second chance at a first impression. All this has been more irritating than anything. The worst? Anyone who may think the last few weeks are normal. This too shall pass.
Real estate in general? Normal’s on it’s way back. When it gets here is anyone’s guess. As I’ve said here before, I’m bettin’ on the 3rd to 4th quarter of this year. It won’t be normal by then by a long shot. It will however become visible on the horizon for the first time in quite awhile.
Just like I hope Murphy’s had enough of me for awhile.
Hello normal!
This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 16th, 2008 at 12:08 am and is filed under Sez Me, Market Correction, Predictions, RE Investment Practice. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.