Posted on June 27, 2008 @ 11:10 pm - Written by BawldGuy
There are plenty of things you can do, not the least of which is to recognize the sea change happening in real time before our eyes. I’m worried for your future. You should be too. And no, I don’t think your properties are gonna put you in the poor house, ‘cuz they’re not. This market correction will end, and at some point your properties will not only regain their value, but go higher.
The Problem?
If your real estate investment world begins and ends at San Diego’s borders, you have a big problem. If they don’t, takin’ your equities Outa Dodge will easily mean $1 Million in additional capital growth for most of you in the next decade. And that figure’s a relatively safe one. Talk about the tortoise and the hare. And for the record? It’s only in the fable that the tortoise wins. Where we’ll take you, the hares don’t stop and lollygag. All things being equal, those leaving San Diego with their real estate investment equity/capital will race past those who stay in town.
It’s a no-brainer. Those who leave now, will be working towards another $5,000 a month retirement income in the next 10 years or so, give or take. This isn’t a game. This is your retirement, and I’m serious as a heart attack about this subject. It’s what I do.
Do not invest in San Diego income property now, or keep what you have longer than it takes to sell/tax defer (1031 exchange) your way out. I’ve been tellin’ folks to buy SD property since Carter was in office. I don’t say these things lightly, as I understand the gravity of decisions based upon one’s future retirement income. But it’s the right thing to do. That makes it an easy call.
I’ll be in town this weekend, available by phone and email. I’m pretty good about gettin’ back to folks quickly. So Contact the Hairless One and let’s see what it’s gonna take to get your retirement back in high gear. Oh, and by the way, for clients doing tax deferred exchanges with Brown and Brown, the selling costs will be reduced by $10,000 or more 90% of the time.
Really — wouldn’t kid ya ’bout that.
Now for some kinda sorta on-topic weekend music. (Just go with it, OK?) Have a good one.
Posted on June 14, 2008 @ 9:23 pm - Written by BawldGuy
I’ll make this short and sweet.
Whatever you buy in SD you can buy in better locations, younger, with better tenants, with far more attractive leverage — elsewhere.
Not by a little bit either. By orders of magnitude. Seriously? It’s not close. Do not keep yourself in denial, as it’s literally gonna cost you seven figures in the next 10-20 years. Every $1 Million you don’t have at retirement ‘cuz you insisted on staying in San Diego means the following.
A minimum of $5,000 a month in retirement income you’ll never see. $2 Million? Uh, that’d be $10,000 that’ll never touch your bank account — month in, and month out.
Get — Outa — Dodge. I’ll help ya. Follow our advice and we’ll save ya, on average well over $10,000 when executing a tax deferred (1031) exchange outa San Diego. No kiddin’ — no games — just get ahold of me ASAP and we’ll get ‘er done.
‘Nuff said.
By the way, Cinnamon Girl already got her stuff Outa Dodge.
Posted on May 14, 2008 @ 9:25 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Sometimes it’s human nature, I know I’ve done it more than once. Spin what we see, hear, and experience first hand to align with what we apparently need to believe. I’ll be the first to admit I Got Outa Dodge a year late. Why? ‘Cuz, ah, well, oh forget it. I was irrational about the trend I was watching in real time. And I’m a pro! Yeah, I got my clients into better markets in time for the most part — the ones who listened. But I should’ve had them out a full 12 months sooner.
Californians so often behave as if the 11th commandment, listed on the third tablet Moses lost on the way down the mountain, said, California Real Estate Shalt Forever Be Blessed…Not.
Take the California real estate market bordered geographically by Santa Barbara on the north, and the Mexican border on the south. Throwing out the low and the high prices for a selected property type, say a duplex for instance, and what do we have? Give or take a half million dollar property. Allow a fudge factor of $50,000 or so. Now, let’s assume an average appreciation rate of only 3.5% — historically way below what SoCal has become accustomed to. In 20 years that duplex is now valued at just under a million bucks.
Everyone who believes folks’ll be standing in line for ancient duplexes at that price, please stand on yer head in the corner and stack bb’s with yer nose.
And the Kansas City Royals, in that same 20 year period will become the most impressive baseball dynasty since the Yankees of the ’20’s and ’30’s. See? Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on April 22, 2008 @ 12:04 am - Written by BawldGuy
This month I’ve spoken with more investors owning property in more or less moribund markets than the entire first quarter. I say moribund ‘cuz a common thread found in the descriptions made me think of the phrase, ‘at death’s door’. I know some of these regions, and the description fits some to a ‘T’. Some of these areas are pretty down, but have cause to at least have rationally founded hope.
These investors ask the question — How do we regain the momentum we had for so long? It’s not like we ever experienced double digit appreciation, but at least it was a steady march up in value. What can we do?
The answer for most of them is to take a step back and look at their specific circumstances as objectively as possible. They usually chuckle when I pass that nugget of wisdom to them. After all, they’ve obviously already done that, and concluded, at least temporarily that they’ve put themselves on an unmarked road to nowhere. That’s called being a little too close to the situation. It’s universal, and we all fall prey to it at one time or another. It’s called human nature.
These conversations sometimes take place with real estate agents asking advice for their clients. They’re home agents, but have done such good jobs for their clients over the years, they’re often asked for investment counseling — advice for which they’re admittedly ill equipped. One such conversation led to the agent encouraging his clients to call me.
Posted on April 12, 2008 @ 1:29 pm - Written by BawldGuy
I hesitated more than a little before publishing this post, as it’s never my intention to make folks feel badly, even if unintentionally. The thoughts in this post come from a good place in my heart. The San Diego (or Palo Alto?) real estate investors owning income property have seen the changes happening in real time. I’ll confess my slowness in seeing the writing on the wall here. Let’s face it — we’ve been spoiled since, well, forever.
What’s been more resilient than California real estate? There are some regions sporting a similar track record, but when the roll is called, it sure doesn’t take very long. We, me included, have been lulled into a false sense of security by decade after decade of solid if not spectacular returns on our investments here.
Still, it’s not that the page has turned, but the book, and therefore the story and its ending has been changed.
This is the weekend, so I’m having some fun at San Diego’s expense, and mine too, to be sure. 20/20 hindsight tells me Read the rest of this entry »
