Posted on June 29, 2008 @ 6:59 pm - Written by BawldGuy
When speaking to audiences in historically high appreciation areas, it’s common to hear them voice serious concern with regions I’m recommending. Their real problem? They’re lookin’ at appreciation at the cost of capital growth — theirs. They’re literally penalizing themselves to the tune of millions over the long term. In baseball terms, strikeouts are cool, but how many earned runs a pitcher allows per game is the real gold standard. No? Ask yourself if for the big game you’d want the guy who strikes out 12 batters a game but has a 5.3 ‘earned run average’ (ERA), or the guy who hardly ever strikes anyone out but only allows three runs a game?
Not a difficult decision, is it? ‘Course not. It’s obvious on it’s face. Why? ‘Cuz in baseball the winner is decided by how who has the most runs at the end of the game — not the team sporting the pitcher with the most strikeouts.
Appreciation = Strikeout Pitcher whereas Capital Growth = Very low Earned Run Average
In real estate investment terms, here’s how it shakes out in real life. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on May 30, 2008 @ 12:06 am - Written by BawldGuy
San Diego and (California in general) has been the best girlfriend ever. Loyal, always thinking of just us, enriching our lives almost without fail, and bringing additional commas to our bank accounts. Talk about having it all, we sure did.
She always played our song. Happy days? The status quo. Even when she was down, we knew from experience she’d bounce back — and even more lovable than before. Well, as happens in real life sometimes, that perfect mate has tired of us and left us high and dry. She’s walking away, and she ain’t comin’ back.
People, that’s exactly what’s happened in California. Investment property has taken a different path. The days of buying, holding for a few years, then selling or executing a tax deferred exchange yielding splashy results are gone. I think they’re gone forever. Why?
Glad you asked.
Your property is now worth, after this market correction, 150-300% of competing markets in out of state growth regions. In San Diego for example, a 35 year old duplex in a decent area sells now for $425-525,000 (often more) give or take. Also, in order to break even every month the investor must put down at least 30% and usually 35-45%. In NoCal 40% is considered wicked good leverage — no kiddin’. The Kool-Aid they drink in Palo Alto and the Bay Area in general is phenomenally effective. They’ll realize too late their lovingly loyal maiden has decided they’re not the Knight in shining armor any more.
Surveys show — capital growth rates fall when leverage is severely depressed. (anonymous smart aleck) Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on April 19, 2008 @ 9:27 pm - Written by BawldGuy
The other day I was having a great conversation with one of my clients who happens to share my passion for baseball. They’d not known about my ‘baseball life’ as a former umpire. I’d worked my way up as far as one could go, umpiring every level of NCAA (college) ball, up to Division I.
Anywho, we got to tradin’ baseball stories, as her brother had played college ball in the midwest. Can’t remember the college for which he played, but it turns out they played in San Diego all three years he was there. It’s possible I umpired him. Go figure.
The present real estate market in San Diego, (Palo Alto too) and those who own income properties here, remind me of what a very experienced head coach once told me. We’d been going over a complicated, and controversial call the week before. He was sure my line of sight had been blocked, getting it wrong, while I knew for a fact my line of sight was unimpeded and I gotten it right. That’s baseball in a nutshell.
I miss it like breathing, but too many conflicts with my business schedule finally forced an early retirement. Also, I got tired of being afraid of my own assistants, who would look at me the morning after weekday afternoon games with death stares you never wanna experience.
During our discussion the coach made a comment I’ve always remembered. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on April 12, 2008 @ 1:29 pm - Written by BawldGuy
I hesitated more than a little before publishing this post, as it’s never my intention to make folks feel badly, even if unintentionally. The thoughts in this post come from a good place in my heart. The San Diego (or Palo Alto?) real estate investors owning income property have seen the changes happening in real time. I’ll confess my slowness in seeing the writing on the wall here. Let’s face it — we’ve been spoiled since, well, forever.
What’s been more resilient than California real estate? There are some regions sporting a similar track record, but when the roll is called, it sure doesn’t take very long. We, me included, have been lulled into a false sense of security by decade after decade of solid if not spectacular returns on our investments here.
Still, it’s not that the page has turned, but the book, and therefore the story and its ending has been changed.
This is the weekend, so I’m having some fun at San Diego’s expense, and mine too, to be sure. 20/20 hindsight tells me Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on March 27, 2008 @ 11:40 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Though we’ve been to Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth, Kansas City, Boise, Phoenix, Palo Alto, and the list goes on, we’ve pretty much ignored San Diego real estate investors for nearly five years. Our plan calls for reentry in April or May. And no, we’re not gonna be tellin’ folks to buy San Diego investment property. It hasn’t made sense for a few years now. In fact, we don’t think it will ever be wise to invest here again.
Why?
Here’s the short version.
Your half million dollar duplex has monthly rents these days of $1,800-2,500 or so. For easily less than half the value of your property,
you can own a duplex (and brand new, not ancient like yours) with monthly income of $2,000-2,400. Does yours offer 3 bedrooms and 2 baths? And an attached 2-Car garage? In a neighborhood you’d allow your 70-something mom live in by herself?
I’d put my mom into these properties to live alone. In Phoenix they started calling it BawldGuy’s Mom Rule. If I wouldn’t put Mom there, don’t tell me about the property. That policy cut out a whole lot of useless conversations. 
If your small 1-4 unit residential income property has a net equity of $60-500,000 you’ll be able to move that equity, tax deferred no doubt, to areas in the country allowing for leverage San Diegans can only experience through time travel, or Grandpa’s stories. Your capital growth rate will soar. Oh, you’d rather have a whole bunch of cash flow? How ’bout doubling to quintupling your current cash flow?
San Diego income properties simply cannot compete with other regions. It’s not possible. And if your Plan calls for you to sell your San Diego stuff in the next 3-10 years, here’s something to think about.
If they’d be ah, ill advised to buy your property today, at it’s lowest value in quite some time, how silly is it gonna be for them to buy it in another decade? It’s ancient now, right? If it’s value goes up in the next 10 years do you believe they’ll pay even more? Really? It’s my professional opinion they won’t — even if they were all the colors of the rainbow.
The bottom line is this: We can get you Outa Dodge — significantly increase your capital growth rate and/or cash flow — plus your tax shelter — while dramatically improving your chances for a magnificently abundant retirement.
Let’s continue with an example of what’s possible.
Let’s use your duplex mentioned above, with loans totaling $250,000 — here’s what you can do.
Your net proceeds from a sale will be more than you might expect because of our new business model. Instead of having sales/closing costs of around $40,000 or so, they’ll be far less. Brown and Brown no longer takes a listing commission of 3%. Tell me that isn’t cool. More on the details later. (Or, here’s an idea — you can contact us and we’ll give you the scoop way before everyone else finds out.)
Even with the normal brokerage fees your net proceeds from a sale will be about $210,000 +/-. With that capital we can tax defer you into $1-1.5 Million of very well located property — brand new too. And that’s not all, not by a long shot. The problem is, most folks don’t know what to do, where to do it, or who can help them get it done. In what direction should they go?
You’ll increase your annual depreciation by over $40,000 — not an insignificant improvement.
The difference is we’ll take your equity from here to there for a whole bunch less — and with way better marketing. We suspect our new model will end up costing our San Diego sellers about 75-90% less on the listing side of the commission. There’s nothing we can do with the buyer’s agent’s cut.
I mentioned marketing. We think those who have been selling small income props have been getting short changed on the quality of marketing. This has resulted in most of these props not selling, or taking forever. We’re gonna change all that — or at least that’s what it says right here.
Back to saving money.
This will result in a savings of well over $10,000 per property at the half million price range.
We’re serious about this.
Are you serious about your retirement plans? Are you seriously counting on San Diego to yield the retirement income you’ll need? If you could safely double, triple, quintuple your retirement income — never mind, silly question.
What are you waiting for? Contact me — we’ll sit down and let you know what’s possible. Most San Diego property owners can make surprisingly significant improvements in their capital growth rate, cash flow, tax shelter, and retirement income.
We’ll be standing by — there’s a pretty convenient Contact BawldGuy button on the upper right side of this page. Says ‘Contact BawldGuy’ and everything.
It works too.