Posted on May 27, 2010 @ 5:32 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Lots of people have been stunned in terms of their relative financial security — especially those whose retirement plans depended largely upon Wall Street. Over and over I hear, “We can watch our stock/bond values so much more closely than we can with real estate.” Boy, ain’t that the truth?!
Segue to total SmartAlec mode.
So, when you were watchin’ your million dollar stock portfolio turn into $600,000 — did watchin’ it add or diminish your sense of financial security? Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on May 20, 2010 @ 10:19 am - Written by BawldGuy
One of my all-time favorite quotes: “In the end it all comes down to talent. You can talk all you want about intangibles, I just don’t know what that means. Talent makes winners, not intangibles. Can nice guys win? Sure, nice guys can win – if they’re nice guys with a lot of talent. Nice guys with a little talent finish fourth and nice guys with no talent finish last.”
Let me know in the comments who you think might’ve said it. Don’t Google it, OK? 
Hint: It was an iconic sports figure.
Folks insisting they can do most things in life themselves are not only doers, but to be admired. On the other hand, it’s amazing sometimes what gets on their ‘most things’ list. Some of us can do things very well that others simply can’t or won’t do. For instance, I don’t design my own office interiors — nor do I paint them myself. Could I? Of course. Should I? Um, not if I want clients to think my IQ has three digits before running into that pesky decimal point. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on April 28, 2010 @ 10:04 am - Written by BawldGuy
Yesterday got away from me, so I’ll talk a bit about what I’ve been thinkin’ lately about my local market, San Diego County. Before I start, I sure wish somebody had warned me about how all the women involved in wedding planning go totally nutball crazy — and that it only gets worse as the date approaches. Each week I seem to lose more hours saluting intense looking ladies as I march off to do their bidding.
Anywho, I’ve been toolin’ up for my imminent return to the San Diego investment property market. Ya might wanna get that look of horror off yer face, cuz I still refuse to be a part of any Brown and Brown client investing long term in San Diego — ain’t gonna happen. What will be happening is the orderly migration of local investment property equities to regions better suited to achieving the investor’s original Plan — to retire well. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on February 17, 2010 @ 4:00 am - Written by BawldGuy
My parents and grandparents, more so with the latter of course, imbued me with a deep respect and understanding of the economic/financial ‘normal’ which permeated their lives. Even when some of the paradigm shifts radically changed the landscape, post WWII, their mindset for the most part wavered not an inch. I’ll confess to being the typical Boomer, in that my early adult years demonstrated a combination of ignorance and a certain self assuredness not supported by either empirical evidence or personal experience.
Put more succinctly, I was the typical 20-something know-it-all whose real life lack of experience, expertise, and knowledge was nearly immeasurable.
Then several ’storms’ converged to enlighten me. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on December 14, 2009 @ 7:55 am - Written by Max Whitmore
Sideways isn’t so bad, you know
CURRENT BUY –- 100% of portfolio stock allocation $$$
KEYLINE 7-25-09 BUY — 50% allocation only (S&P @ 970)
SIGNAL 10-9-09 BUY — balance of 50% (S&P @ 1071)
Sometimes you just wonder how long the market can meander sideways. But then, you remember that the rule in charting is that the sideways movement, called a “correction in time,” (especially after a long rally) can be the best world of all. What such a market says is that, yes, the heavy preponderance of buyers has declined, but, the auction market is now at almost a balance between buyers and sellers and the index prices should hold their own until more buyers come to the game.
My wife used to ask me why the market was up or down on a particular day. My answer became so “the same” that she often answered for me. My answer on days where the market was up was “More buyers than sellers,” and on down days “More sellers than buyers.” She used to laugh, but I am sure she got tired of hearing that. I recall she would often say, “No, I mean really!” Sorry honey, but who REALLY knows exactly for sure. Sometimes it is clear, but most of the time it is foggy at best to pick the one best reason. That is why in the daily “Munchin” report I try to give you the 5-7 main reasons the market moved up or down for the day, at least as I see them. Take your pick, as any one of them usually has had at least some noticeable impact during the day. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on December 7, 2009 @ 4:46 pm - Written by Max Whitmore
Well, we got the best of both worlds last week, lower bond and gold prices and a higher dollar, plus a bonus by getting above the 1,100 S&P level and staying there most of the week, finally closing at 1,105.98 on the S&P cash index. And add to that the cooling of the Dubai problem, at least to the degree that it is not a front page worry. It was an almost perfect week for the charts.
But, don’t think that we are out of the woods just because all the good stuff lines up end to end. The weakness that the Dubai episode uncovered nearly two weeks ago is still there. But, as of this writing, it is fair to say that it is likely no longer a game-breaker. But, what it did show to all was that the world’s central banks still have a long way to go to regain the confidence of investors.
I have said a number of times over the last two years that the worst nightmare of Mr. Bernanke, our Fed chairman, is to lose the confidence of investors. His concern over this is one of the reasons that the huge flood of “newly printed” dollars continues. At all costs, he does not want deflation to gain the upper hand. So far he has been able to keep control, which is testified to by the stock markets seven month rise. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on November 23, 2009 @ 12:23 pm - Written by Max Whitmore
I told you last week I would give you a deeper look into the oil and gold markets, as well as some comments on the interest rate developments internationally. But, before I get to those, I first want to give you just a quick update on the S&P. With the Thanksgiving holiday upon us, no need to go into a long analysis here this week. Here is the S&P chart as of the close last Friday (11-20).
Basically you will note that the price from last Friday was only a tad lower (from 1093.48 to 1091.38 – remember this is the S&P cash index, not the futures). We did move closer to the “Headline” again, however, and this, with the high green line (fast stochastic) in the Momentum Section (bottom of the chart), has me a little concerned that we might see a bit more selling soon. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on November 4, 2009 @ 3:58 pm - Written by BawldGuy
After living through so many iterations of various markets, both home and in several other states over four decades, I’ve come to believe in my favorite lender axiom more and more.
BawldGuy Axiom: Lenders lend. When they begin to see the lender ’stamp’ on their forehead fading away, they realize it’s lend or die. They’d rather lend.
The most recent example of this has been in Texas, and not even with owner occupied properties. A institution totally new to investment property lending saw the opportunity to make a killing. They made it known they’d lend 80% LTV on small residential income props. They charged just a smidge over normal points, and a slightly higher, but acceptable interest rate.
What happened? Read the rest of this entry »