Posted on December 14, 2009 @ 7:55 am - Written by Max Whitmore
Sideways isn’t so bad, you know
CURRENT BUY –- 100% of portfolio stock allocation $$$
KEYLINE 7-25-09 BUY — 50% allocation only (S&P @ 970)
SIGNAL 10-9-09 BUY — balance of 50% (S&P @ 1071)
Sometimes you just wonder how long the market can meander sideways. But then, you remember that the rule in charting is that the sideways movement, called a “correction in time,” (especially after a long rally) can be the best world of all. What such a market says is that, yes, the heavy preponderance of buyers has declined, but, the auction market is now at almost a balance between buyers and sellers and the index prices should hold their own until more buyers come to the game.
My wife used to ask me why the market was up or down on a particular day. My answer became so “the same” that she often answered for me. My answer on days where the market was up was “More buyers than sellers,” and on down days “More sellers than buyers.” She used to laugh, but I am sure she got tired of hearing that. I recall she would often say, “No, I mean really!” Sorry honey, but who REALLY knows exactly for sure. Sometimes it is clear, but most of the time it is foggy at best to pick the one best reason. That is why in the daily “Munchin” report I try to give you the 5-7 main reasons the market moved up or down for the day, at least as I see them. Take your pick, as any one of them usually has had at least some noticeable impact during the day. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on December 7, 2009 @ 4:46 pm - Written by Max Whitmore
Well, we got the best of both worlds last week, lower bond and gold prices and a higher dollar, plus a bonus by getting above the 1,100 S&P level and staying there most of the week, finally closing at 1,105.98 on the S&P cash index. And add to that the cooling of the Dubai problem, at least to the degree that it is not a front page worry. It was an almost perfect week for the charts.
But, don’t think that we are out of the woods just because all the good stuff lines up end to end. The weakness that the Dubai episode uncovered nearly two weeks ago is still there. But, as of this writing, it is fair to say that it is likely no longer a game-breaker. But, what it did show to all was that the world’s central banks still have a long way to go to regain the confidence of investors.
I have said a number of times over the last two years that the worst nightmare of Mr. Bernanke, our Fed chairman, is to lose the confidence of investors. His concern over this is one of the reasons that the huge flood of “newly printed” dollars continues. At all costs, he does not want deflation to gain the upper hand. So far he has been able to keep control, which is testified to by the stock markets seven month rise. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on November 23, 2009 @ 12:23 pm - Written by Max Whitmore
I told you last week I would give you a deeper look into the oil and gold markets, as well as some comments on the interest rate developments internationally. But, before I get to those, I first want to give you just a quick update on the S&P. With the Thanksgiving holiday upon us, no need to go into a long analysis here this week. Here is the S&P chart as of the close last Friday (11-20).
Basically you will note that the price from last Friday was only a tad lower (from 1093.48 to 1091.38 – remember this is the S&P cash index, not the futures). We did move closer to the “Headline” again, however, and this, with the high green line (fast stochastic) in the Momentum Section (bottom of the chart), has me a little concerned that we might see a bit more selling soon. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on November 4, 2009 @ 3:58 pm - Written by BawldGuy
After living through so many iterations of various markets, both home and in several other states over four decades, I’ve come to believe in my favorite lender axiom more and more.
BawldGuy Axiom: Lenders lend. When they begin to see the lender ’stamp’ on their forehead fading away, they realize it’s lend or die. They’d rather lend.
The most recent example of this has been in Texas, and not even with owner occupied properties. A institution totally new to investment property lending saw the opportunity to make a killing. They made it known they’d lend 80% LTV on small residential income props. They charged just a smidge over normal points, and a slightly higher, but acceptable interest rate.
What happened? Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on October 26, 2009 @ 8:46 am - Written by Max Whitmore
All I read this week (on a dozen or more financial web sites I frequent) was about how “this rally is all over!” The world is about to end this “all-wrong” stock market buying spree, most of them said in one way or another, and “that it was about time, too!” For the most part, they all felt that the Dow 10,000 level was the final straw of “the madness in this ‘economically unjustifiable’ rally” and that we could now expect that the next move was going to be a decided decline of large proportions.
As I sit here writing to you, the thought keeps coming “All because we hit Dow 10,000?” Now, understand, hitting the Dow 10,000 level was of great interest to me. After all, just six months ago we were over 3,000, that’s 3,000, Dow points lower and by most all accounts about to fall below the Dow 5,000 very soon. But, from the true economic standpoint Dow 10,000 is no different than Dow 9,000 or any other Dow even thousand number. The truth is that a Dow number is not what will start a selloff anyway. Selloffs occur when the large majority of investors see the expectations that fuel a rally slipping away. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on October 12, 2009 @ 9:52 am - Written by Max Whitmore
Well, what do I say?? As of the close last Friday, The Maxx Super Chart flashed a full-blown BUY signal. The last signal it generated was the SELL signal on February 8, 2008, over 18 months ago. So, am I impressed? YOU BET!! I have followed the Super Chart for a number of decades and I am always excited when a signal is flashed.
OK, so now what, you say. Well, the signal that flashed a 50% BUY commitment last July 25th now says the rest of the portfolio allocated to stock purchases should be committed. What stocks should you buy?? Well, I will leave the specific stock selection to you, as you know your likes and dislikes better than anyone else. Now understand, that’s not a cop out. I just don’t give personal portfolio recommendations, as I am not registered for that. But, as I said last week, I will continue, from time to time, to present a stock I find of interest for you to further investigate. And, hopefully one day, I will be able to offer a way that you can check your own stock picks on my Maxx Super Chart. But, that is still down the road a bit. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on September 10, 2009 @ 7:57 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Sometimes the simplest principles are the ones leading to the most success. My dad, for his first several years in school, literally attended class in a red, one room schoolhouse. He said he learned more in that atmosphere, the basics backwards and forwards, than he ever did in the more ‘modern’ schools he later attended. His first years of school were in the 1930’s.
Aside from the myriad things we need to know and understand, plus the technical and analytical skills required to make real estate investment decisions, there are, in reality, all things being equal, only two things you need to know. Once you know these two things, and understand the conclusion to which they inevitably lead, you will have infinitely increased your chances for long term investment success. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on September 2, 2009 @ 3:28 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Last week you got that raise. At 40 you’re making what you thought you would be at 50. Way to go! Once the raise kicks in you’ll be banking more Benjamins than ever. And that three unit property you bought back in ‘99? It’s cash flowing like an ATM thank you very much. You’re in the money — and things are really looking up. As a matter of fact, those units have gone up over $100K since you bought them — even after the current market correction.
How could things be any better? The answer? Easy.
Let’s do this by employing just a little Socratic questioning. Read the rest of this entry »