Posted on September 3, 2010 @ 9:54 am - Written by BawldGuy
Written By — Chad Emerson
Good news and bad news for the mortgage market today. The good news first, August Institute of Supply and Management Index was recalculated to show readings down from 54.3 to 51.5, that is normally supportive of steady to potentially lower mortgage rates. BUT, not so fast, the Non-Farms had to put their two cents in with numbers that are causing yet another sell-off on Wall Street. Mortgage-backed securities are trying to rally back from their opening of -17, to just -8 as I write. What caused our skittish investors to dump their MBS were better numbers than expected on non-farm payrolls. Non-farms were down 54,000 when most forecasters were expecting at least somewhere north of 75,000 and potentially up to 100,000. Anything less than 75,000 was sure to cause a sell off.
So this is the way it is going to be for some time, whereas the mortgage rates will be dependent on stock purchase/sales. The growing concern on MBS is that the price has just hit an all time high, and what happens if they can’t find anyone else willing to pay even more for MBS? They will be left holding on to a depreciating asset, and ultimately be left licking their wounds and selling for less than what they bought them for. Sometimes it’s hard to resist the temptation to catch the train will it’s moving, as everyone wants a piece of the pie, but the cooler calmer heads on Wall Street know not to buy on momentum and that is what investors are starting to think about prior to purchasing.
I will update everyone of rates as soon as the smoke clears, and rate sheets are updated.
Rates holding tight at 5.25% for 20% down investment SFR Purchase.
The same for 25% down investment duplex
Chad Emerson
Senior Loan Officer
PrimeLending
270 N. Loop 1604 E., Ste. 310
San Antonio, TX 78232
Office Direct: (210) 483-4962
Mobile: (210) 557-6320
E-Fax: 1-(866) 217-8894
cemerson@primelending.com
Posted on August 27, 2010 @ 4:58 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Written By — Chad Emerson
Happy Friday to all. Second verse same as the first. It appears that Eco news today caused a mass sell-off of mortgage backed securities today when it was announced that economic growth was not as sluggish as many thought it would be. Although first estimates of the GDP were 2.4% and the revised numbers came in at 1.4%, you would think that just the opposite would be happening and mortgage backs would be more favorable than stocks, but, many forecasters were expecting the revised GDP numbers to be closer to 1.2, and 1.4 looks a heck of a lot better than 1.2. Now, patience is not a known trait of a Wall Street Investor, so this news caused a sell off of MBS and purchases of stocks. As I write this, the Down is up a robust 100 points, the NAZ is up 22 points and our friends, the mortgage-backed securities are down -16.
By no means should this be taken as a sign that the US economy is back on track. Big Ben (Fed. Chairman), stated that the Fed is still prepared to take any additional action needed to ramp up the US economy if needed. This of course only adds more octane to Wall Street Investors’ coffee. Although any gains that the MBS made this week were completely erased by today’s sell off, I’m sure that this is a temporary result of profit-taking.
Today’s rates:
5.125% for Single-family investment purchase
5.125% for duplex investment purchase
Office Direct: (210) 483-4962
Mobile: (210) 557-6320
Posted on August 20, 2010 @ 3:40 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Written By — Chad Emerson
It has been a crazy up and down week as far as the mortgage-backed securities are concerned. This weeks up and down action resembled something out of a ‘Rocky Movie’. You have the mortgage-backed securities resembling Rocky getting pummeled for two days straight by the Dow Jones, who we’ll refer to as Apollo. Investors and forecasters were sure that this was signaling the potential end of the historically low rates that we have all been enjoying for some time. The MBS were being dropped to the canvas quicker than you can say profit-taking. But amazingly and predictably enough, Rocky (MBS mind you), finds the strength to summon up a flurry and punch it’s way out of defeat and gain the upper hand. So how did this all happen? Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on August 13, 2010 @ 10:17 am - Written by BawldGuy
Written By — Chad Emerson
It’s Friday the 13th, and fortunately all is well in the MBS arena. After taking it on the chin yesterday, the MBS are rebounding nicely. As I write this, the Dow and Nasdaq are down just a tick and mortgage backs are up 7.
The big news this week was the Labor Department announcing that the number of people standing in Line for first time jobless claims, rose by 2,000. It’s the second straight week for this, which normally would support lower mortgage rates, however, given the value of the mbs, it was only a matter of time before some profits were taken.
Expect more of the same this next coming week, whereas the stock market will be the main determinant of where mortgage rates are headed.
Interest rates for Investors are still decent at 5.125 – 5.250 for 20% down
Same rate for duplex with 25% down
Office Direct: (210) 483-4962
Mobile: (210) 557-6320
E-Fax: 1-(866) 217-8894
cemerson@primelending.com
Posted on August 6, 2010 @ 11:16 am - Written by BawldGuy
Written By — Chad Emerson
Non-farms (numbers) are out and those panicky investors on Wall Street started selling off their stocks and dumping their gains into relatively safe mortgage backed securities. As I write this, the Dow is down 123 and the Naz down 28.
So it looks like we will have some continued improvement as far as mortgage rates are determined. Many forecasters had estimated that the non-farms would have little effect on mortgage rates, however, if we had payroll loss of 80,000 or more and unemployment rose from 9.5 to 9.7, we could see fractionally lower interest rates. Well, we received half of the recipe with non-farms payroll loss of 131,000, and unemployment remained steady at 9.5. The non-farms loss of 131,000 was more than enough to send investors into an early morning sell off of stocks. It appears as if we’re still not out of the woods as far as economists are concerned, but that is still no surprise to anybody.
Still a great time to invest with the historically low interest rates. Today’s rates are currently at:
5-5.25% on Single-family 20% down
Same for duplex — 25% down
Some of you are looking to refinance your own personal mortgages, and those rate are currently at:
4.25% on 30 year
3.75% on 15 year
If you have any questions, please don’t hastate to email or give me a call.
Posted on July 23, 2010 @ 9:02 am - Written by BawldGuy
Written By — Chad Emerson
As I mentioned last week, eventually there was going to be some profit-taking going on at The Wall, and that’s what we saw Thursday. Looks like the Dow has made some recovery, up another 200 today as I write this. Interest rates had a slight tick upwards of 1/8th of a percent. Federal Reserve Chairman a.k.a. ‘Big Ben’ spoke to the HSFC today and repeated exactly what he told the SBC yesterday, that we are still chartering unknown waters, and the economy is showing minor glimpses of improvement from time to time. But, I really think that this is more wishful thinking because he went on to say that the FED is ready to help bolster growth even if that means more purchases of MBS. If you remember, several months ago, the FED stopped purchasing MBS, and this obviously wouldn’t be needed if the economy was improving, but we’ll take a wait-and-see approach. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on July 19, 2010 @ 6:24 pm - Written by BawldGuy
BawldGuy Here: I first published this post about six months ago. Many around the country have emailed me how they sent it to their buddy, their cousin, etc. I thought tonight was as good a time as any to post it again. I think it has some solid investment lessons. I hope you enjoy it.
Lost a ton in your 401k at work? Most show about 35-45% losses from their peak. Man, that hurts just to write it. Here’s a way you can very safely and prudently build a basket of retirement income without bankin’ on any appreciation.
I promise — you can do it.
Here’s an example, using real properties recently purchased by real clients. I’m gonna modify some of the numbers, but the modifications will not in any way make the bottom line better by an inch. (Worse in fact.) Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on July 16, 2010 @ 8:44 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Written By — Chad Emerson
More of the same this week. Not enough positive economic data to push rates higher, even though the first-time unemployment benefits dropped to it’s lowest level in two years. Economists were quick to note that these numbers were most likely “skewed” by a lower than normal shutdown of season factory jobs. It is my opinion, take that for what’s it’s worth, that mortgage rates have hit the floor, and it may take a jack hammer to go lower, but the boys on Wall Street are starting to itch for some profit-taking gains on their bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Read the rest of this entry »