Posted on June 24, 2008 @ 12:17 am - Written by BawldGuy
You can check out Part I here and Part II here if you need to catch up. Now we can proceed with what you might expect while in escrow. For those thinking, ‘Hey, we have a contract, what could happen?’ I keep a plentiful supply of generic aspirin available.
It’s far easier to list what can go right in an escrow than what can potentially go wrong. As an understatement, that may rate honorable mention on the annual Top 10 List.
5. Incomplete list of what can go sideways while in escrow.
Numero uno on this list is lender related. Name something in the loan process and I’ll give you a real life experience (we call this empirical evidence) of how it can, has before, and will again torpedo an escrow. Let’s count just a few of the myriad possibilities. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on May 24, 2008 @ 8:24 pm - Written by BawldGuy
This past week, and throughout all of the coming week or two Brown and Brown clients have been and will be closing escrows. Every single client is acquiring multiple properties with 10-20% down payments — with a fixed rate of 6%.
Wait just a doggone minute here! Real estate investors can’t do that any more, can they? Ah, yeah, they can. I keep tellin’ you. Stop drinkin’ MSM’s (mainstream media) Kool-Aid. While from every corner we’re being told what we can’t do, we’ve been doin’ it.
I’ve had clients tell me right up ’till they get confirmation of closing, that the loan won’t materialize. “Hadn’t I been following the news lately?” Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on April 26, 2008 @ 12:03 am - Written by BawldGuy
It’s never a good day when I find it necessary to tell someone I can’t take them on as a client. Sometimes it’s ‘cuz they find themselves in quicksand and need help — but they’re too far gone. Most of the time though, it’s ‘cuz they’re under capitalized. They either want me to help them invest with 0-5% down, which I won’t do period, end of sentence, or they’ll have zip, zero, nada cash reserves to establish their Sominex Account.
As I’ve said dozens of times here, no Sominex Account means we can’t work with you. Though it’s designed to help the client sleep when Murphy makes his inevitable visit(s), it’s also there so I can sleep, know what I mean, Verne? I don’t like those weird dreams when I’m stressed.
Still, to those for whom I can’t help for this reason, and who obviously have more courage than is safe, I offer the following. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on April 19, 2008 @ 1:41 am - Written by BawldGuy
Here’s a poser for ya. This question comes up all the time, ‘cuz folks seem to ‘know’ one way’s better than the other most of the time. Problem is they almost always pick the wrong one. It usually arises when we’re talkin’ about income and expenses — you know, the month in, month out operations of income property.
Here’s the question — usually posed in such a way indicating the obvious answer.
Short Pause For A Note: There’s no way I’m gonna get a cool photo for this, so I’m just winging it with whatever strikes my fancy. I like cool pics, don’t you? Besides, it’s the weekend.
Isn’t an interest only loan a much better way to go when compared to an amortizing loan? You save all that money over the holding period, right? That really adds up. Well, usually not, sorry.
The last comparison I did was about a week ago, and it came out about 2 to 1 against interest only. Why? Simple — The money they saved in monthly payments over a 5 year holding period was around $7,000 using the interest only approach. The principal pay down of the loan balance over the same period using an amortizing loan was just over $14,000 — about twice as much.
Now I now what’s goin’ on out there, so please, step away from the calculator. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on April 2, 2008 @ 12:32 am - Written by BawldGuy
Please forgive the title, but sometimes I grow weary of all the nay sayers out there, rooting for a complete collapse. Surely this correction, both for the national economy as a whole, and real estate housing specifically, have demonstrated unique qualities. Subprime is now part of the culture’s lexicon. The banking system has been tested mightily, as has the leadership of the Federal Reserve and its Chairman, Ben Bernanke.
I’ve never been one of those real estate cheerleader types. You know the ones, there’s never a bad time to buy real estate, yadda yadda. When the market’s sucky that’s what I call it. You can’t go through as many bad markets as I have and do otherwise.
Those who’ve been buying real estate investment property lately are gonna feel pretty good about themselves a few years down the road. Even back in the post recession years of ‘74-75, or after the S & L Crisis resolved itself, the perfect storm we see today never materialized. The missing link? The permanent loss of historically reliable investment regions like say, the entire west coast for instance. Or how ’bout the emergence of new ‘destination’ regions in Texas, (Dallas/Fort Worth) Idaho, (Boise) and Kansas City to name a few? But the real difference is the long term fixed interest rates available for investors.
Just to be consistent and on point for my San Diego readers — Get Outa Dodge — and get out now. 
Thanks — I needed that. Now back to our regularly scheduled post.
First Sam Zell says what I’ve been saying for months. The housing market isn’t nearly in as bad a shape as mainstream media wants us all to believe. In fact he said a recovery would begin this spring. I think he’s pretty aggressively optimistic to say that, but he’s the billionaire, so I’ll let time tell us if my 3rd to 4th quarter scenario is correct or not.
This was followed shortly thereafter by the markets in Texas I like so much experiencing incredible real estate growth, even more impressive population growth, and a precipitous drop in vacancy rates. Oh, and did I mention the simultaneous increase in apartment construction there? Oh yeah — good times.
This week two giants also decided it’s time to buy. As David Stejkowski duly noted, both Shorenstein and Blackstone have raised prodigious amounts of capital for the acquisition of billions in commercial real estate.
And here’s a gift for San Diego readers who are owners of local income property. Allow a short preface. Your properties are worth significantly less today than they were three years ago. Yet, if you had the choice, you wouldn’t buy your own property for even today’s value. I’ve asked that question of a couple dozen local real estate investors, and with two exceptions, they all admitted they wouldn’t think of buying their own properties again — even at today’s discounted values. 
Read this quote from Mr. Shorenstein and think of what you should be doing with your San Diego income property. (Hint: Get Outa Dodge)
Shorenstein, son of company founder Walter Shorenstein, told the New York Times in 1995: “If somebody is willing to pay a lot more than I would pay, then we’re a seller.”
That quote was taken out of an article published two days ago in the San Francisco Chronicle, entitled — Waiting for real estate bounce. Read the article to learn how Shorenstein is thinking about this market.
Bloomberg tells us about Blackstone’s $10.9 Billion in today’s update. Blackstone Group for those reading the name for the first time, is the world’s largest leveraged buyout fund.
So, there you have it. Sam Zell — Shorenstein Co. — Blackstone Group — all saying the window of opportunity is upon us.
Put that together with what Wall Street has been saying, especially today, and one could conclude the Bulls are about to make their final move against the staggering Bears. The jury is still, of course, out. But I’ve been saying in these pages for the last 90 days or so, that this is the final skirmish between the two. It appears to me the Bulls have the Bears in the corner hoping for a last minute miracle.
Finally, without wavering, I’ve been backing Fed Chairman Bernanke since Day 1. He’s made the correct moves, all the while listening to critics who wanted him to do their bidding on their schedule. He’s done it his way. We won’t know for awhile, but it’s my contention we may look back at the first 92 days of 2008 as the period the good guys triumphed, led by Bernanke.
I’d give you a much clearer picture, but since the crystal ball hasn’t come back from the shop, this’ll have to do. But, just before I put it in the shop, I looked to see what might be next for the general lending outlook.
BawldGuy Prediction: On or before July 4th, real estate loan underwriters and their bosses will have rolled the clock back to basic sanity. Meaning? Loan programs now unavailable will reappear. Virtually impossible underwriting requirements will quietly be retired. Lenders will wake up, realize it says L-E-N-D-E-R on their foreheads. The next thought will be how little they’ve been acting like a lender. Then they will find ways to lend.
Why?
BawldGuy Axiom: Lenders lend.