Posted on July 18, 2008 @ 1:14 am - Written by BawldGuy
Banks goin’ down, Fannie and Freddie gettin’ help from Uncle Ben, DOW down, DOW up, Dow up again. Presidential election promising to be the most definitive since Reagan vs Carter. Lenders turning underwriting standards for real estate investors into a sitcom. Melodrama is easily more accurate, but laughing is the better choice here.
It might, no, probably will get a little darker out there, but not much IMHO. I say that fully cognizant of the fact it could all go to hell in a hand basket. Since this ‘darkest’ time is not nearly as dark as one or two I’ve experienced, I’ll go out on a limb, saying the ‘hand basket’ scenario is a 1,000 to 1 shot. (An scientifically empirical number, of course.) Let’s just say we’re edging towards the whole darkest before the blah blah blah. Just get out the lantern, alright?
Another region which was hit stoopid hard, has begun to emulate Phoenix as it relates to REO sales. (Bank owned props) In plain English, San Diego is now seeing goodly numbers of bank owned homes selling above listed price with multiple offers to boot. And yeah, I know it’s part of marketing strategy. Still, listing under market to generate multiple offers can’t work if the demand isn’t there. Duh. That demand wasn’t there very recently. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on July 13, 2008 @ 8:30 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Been sayin’ this since forever — or at least since this market correction got underway. Ben Bernanke, our Fed Chairman, is real estate’s best friend in the world. Really? Yeah, no kiddin’. He’s maybe the reigning living expert on the Great Depression and it’s causes. And what, pray tell, does he believe was the first domino that was tipped over, triggering the crash of ‘29 and the beginning of the Great Depression?
The collapse of the real estate market in 1927.
He’s written a book on it for Heaven’s sake. So when he opened the New York Federal Reserve Bank to Fannie and Freddie today, it was no surprise whatsoever to those who know his background. Monday morning the two giants of the secondary market will be able to belly up to the cash window if the feel the need — at 2.25%.
Once the European ‘Head Dude’ pulls his head out, setting his ginormous ego aside, things will begin to revert to normal a whole lot mo fasta.
BawldGuy Disclosure:The above opinion combined with my heavily armed Starbucks card, will get us coffee and cookies pretty much any afternoon.
Meanwhile, back at BawldGuy Ranch, it’s time for a kinda sorta on-topic video. This one thanks to Misty Kahn of Arrow Tips. Thanks Misty.
The sun keeps doin’ its thing — and will, regardless of anything the media says.
Posted on July 10, 2008 @ 11:29 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Today let’s talk about the movie we’re all watching and in which we’re all actors.
When giant Wall Street financial firms write off monster losses, direct lenders go down in flames, oil prices translate into nearly $5 gas, and every chart we see seems to tell us to bend over and kiss our butts goodbye, I know we’re watching the latest sequel to We’re All Gonna Die.
I’ve seen this movie several times. I know how it ends. Warning Warning Warning — this post contains spoiler.
Fortunately much of what I have to say today is about stuff that’s already happened, and is beyond debate. What I’m gonna predict as the ending can be debated ’till ya can’t keep yer eyes open any longer. My crystal ball is perpetually cracked, and you’ve never come here and read me claiming otherwise.
Still, I have seen the dang flick a few times before, and the ending is always the same. We’re not at the end of the movie just yet, so let’s table the talk about that a bit. Besides, I wanna make sure you know I’m gonna spoil it for you. So don’t act all crazy when I do. Stop readin’ now if ya don’t wanna know. Lord knows it’s not my intention to mess up yer movie goin’ pleasure.
There are three reels to this film. We’re just beginning the last one. The first reel developed the story line and many of the characters. In essence, the economy is the star. We’re all extras. The second reel brought in the real angst and pain. Stock market goes south in a big way. Lenders teeter on the edge of disaster. Regular folk are suffering financially — not even nearly most of them, but easily enough to be a huge problem. Foreclosure rates are enough to make that point without debate. ‘Nuff said there.
The best part of most movies, at least the ones we really liked, is found in the last reel. Duh.
Irrelevant Note: Bruce Willis never looked better than in the last Die Hard movie. Just sayin’
As we enter this last reel, things just can’t get any worse. Of course that’s how most movies go, right? Then it immediately does get worse. In this case, it not only gets worse, but mainstream media does it’s best to bring copious amounts of $5 gas to pour on the bonfire of eminent disaster, fanning the flames as they go. The media plays a recurring role in all these sequels. The pressure tightens, and the tension becomes almost unbearable. That’s when they give you the signal. It’s incredibly subtle if they’re good at it. But the signal let’s you know just how Bruce Willis is gonna single handedly outsmart the bad guys, and save the day.
Posted on May 28, 2008 @ 9:14 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Among the many key factors in the ultimate success of any real estate investor’s retirement is the ability to remain objective while analyzing opportunities. I know yer wondering why I didn’t add a ‘duh’ at the end of that sentence. There are so many who don’t realize the impact of a biased analytical conclusion. Your Purposeful Plan becomes campfire kindling when relying on subjective analysis.
I’ve been in San Diego since ‘67 and seen the phenomenal changes the area has gone through since. Seriously, compared to today, San Diego circa ‘67 was Mayberry RFD. I remember how excited we all were, when as home agents someone listed a $35,000 home! We all wanted to see up close and personally what a house that expensive looked like. When, in ‘71 Dad sold his home, and combined the net proceeds with proceeds from another small project to buy a home ‘up on the hill’ for $115,000! OMG! Lord knows what it’s worth today, 37 years and a three booms later, even with the market correction.
When I made the switch from homes to investment property in the summer of ‘76 we’d just begun the huge run-up of real estate values. It went from about late ‘75/early ‘76 to the fall of ‘79, when it hit an immovable object at 110 mph. It was ugly. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on May 9, 2008 @ 11:52 pm - Written by BawldGuy
The funny thing about counting on the past as a future predictor is how some will attribute circumstances to history that simply belong in a piece of fiction. Here’s a challenge. Tell me how the last eight years is repeating any part of our San Diego or California real estate history. Take yer time.
Give yourself a break and don’t waste precious weekend time on what amounts to a bar bet. We on the west coast have relied on one common thread, regardless of whatever slowdown was our current reality.
Here’s a speed of light review of the last 30+ years of San Diego real estate history. Read the rest of this entry »
