Posted on May 28, 2008 @ 9:14 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Among the many key factors in the ultimate success of any real estate investor’s retirement is the ability to remain objective while analyzing opportunities. I know yer wondering why I didn’t add a ‘duh’ at the end of that sentence. There are so many who don’t realize the impact of a biased analytical conclusion. Your Purposeful Plan becomes campfire kindling when relying on subjective analysis.
I’ve been in San Diego since ‘67 and seen the phenomenal changes the area has gone through since. Seriously, compared to today, San Diego circa ‘67 was Mayberry RFD. I remember how excited we all were, when as home agents someone listed a $35,000 home! We all wanted to see up close and personally what a house that expensive looked like. When, in ‘71 Dad sold his home, and combined the net proceeds with proceeds from another small project to buy a home ‘up on the hill’ for $115,000! OMG! Lord knows what it’s worth today, 37 years and a three booms later, even with the market correction.
When I made the switch from homes to investment property in the summer of ‘76 we’d just begun the huge run-up of real estate values. It went from about late ‘75/early ‘76 to the fall of ‘79, when it hit an immovable object at 110 mph. It was ugly. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on May 9, 2008 @ 11:52 pm - Written by BawldGuy
The funny thing about counting on the past as a future predictor is how some will attribute circumstances to history that simply belong in a piece of fiction. Here’s a challenge. Tell me how the last eight years is repeating any part of our San Diego or California real estate history. Take yer time.
Give yourself a break and don’t waste precious weekend time on what amounts to a bar bet. We on the west coast have relied on one common thread, regardless of whatever slowdown was our current reality.
Here’s a speed of light review of the last 30+ years of San Diego real estate history. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on May 2, 2008 @ 3:10 pm - Written by BawldGuy
It’s not even 2 o’clock yet and the cell is already smokin’, ready for a charge. Geez. It’s Friday, and I’ve already worked nine days this week. (whining infant in background) I’m draggin’ just a bit.
Here’s a thought I woke up with though, concerning the latest rise in commodity prices. Think back to the years when NASDAQ was on its near vertical rise — give or take ‘99-’01. It hit the wall like a crash test dummy. It’s my opinion we’re about to see the same thing with commodities. Much of the price increases are a direct result of speculators dominating the exchanges. There are some very experienced and knowledgeable folks who’re saying exactly that and more. They’re also calling for Bernanke to intervene with the same strong leadership displayed with the Bear Stearns problem.
The commodity market wasn’t designed to be taken over and almost completely controlled by speculators whose only agenda is to control the market to their own ends. Bernanke knows what’s going on. I wonder what he’s been thinking?
Regardless, look for the prices of commodities to come down big time. When? Sorry, but the ol’ crystal ball remains in the shop. My take is it won’t be that long though. We may be seeing cracks already.
Meanwhile, I’m officially calling an end to the work day. (Fat chance of that gaining much traction.) Anywho, crank up the volume as high as it goes, and hit the floor dancin’.
Posted on April 16, 2008 @ 10:52 pm - Written by BawldGuy
I’ll make this short and sweet. Waiting ’till the shoeshine boy tells you Texas is the place to be will, as the famous story goes, make you late for the party. The time to get there is when it’s still invitation only.
Consider yourself officially invited.
You may RSVP via the Contact Bawldguy link.
Talk to you soon.
P.S. I’ll be talking about it tomorrow, but Larry Kudlow said today that transport may indeed be showing us the way. See? I’m not the Lone Ranger on that one.
Also tomorrow — Empirical evidence, not screaming rhetoric, showing scheduled loan ‘resets’ peaked over two months ago, and…well, read tomorrow. Don’t ya love two parters?
Posted on April 8, 2008 @ 9:14 pm - Written by BawldGuy
A real free market capitalist may not embrace recessions, but they understand them, and would rather treat them for what they are — a cleanup crew taking away the debris slowing the economy down. It’s sometimes a brutal process, but what’s the alternative? A government controlled economy? One can certainly argue our economy isn’t totally free, and they wouldn’t hear a peep from this corner. Still, it’s pretty much the most agile, fluid, and adjustable economy in the world, so I’ll take it.
Let’s assume we’re in a recession now. It’s too early to be positive, but the numbers seem to show a certain velocity toward that end. We could avoid it, but at this point it doesn’t seem likely. My take, based on experience, checking my windsock, and a cracked crystal ball, says it’ll be very short lived, and probably pretty shallow.
As usual, I’ll invoke the BawldGuy Disclaimer: That opinion along with my heavily armed Starbucks card will get us both some coffee and a cookie.
Real estate investors shouldn’t be celebrating, but on the other hand, if indeed we’re in even a short and shallow version, it should lengthen somewhat the ‘window’ I’m constantly talking about. You know the one. It’s allowing us to stay under the radar while we’re buying very cool and performing investment property in selected growth regions. This opportunity happened, in different form, the last recession back in 2001. Investors who paid attention, won, and won big.
