Posted on June 11, 2008 @ 11:15 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Some of today’s post comes via inspiration from conversations I have sometimes with one of my Starbucks buddies. Our conversations are wide ranging, which at times becomes the catalyst for some serious thought when it comes to real estate investors and investing.
‘Course, since random is the theme today, pictures shall be congruently random also.
Gray Bomb
Though I’ve written here often on what drives my decisions to recommend one property/region over others, it still boils down to the same basics it always has. Jobs, job creation, commerce, etc. The continued migration of large population segments from the north, most of the midwest, and the northeast towards sunbelt regions is still strong and will continue to be. No surprise there.
The phrase Gray Bomb though, will begin to have more and more meaning and impact upon real estate as time does its thing. Boomers are now pretty much graying right in front of us. I know, ‘cuz I are one. Though there’s absolutely no gray on my head. (Thanks Schick) They’re making life decisions regarding their retirements, which are impacting the economy in general, and real estate markets specifically to an ever growing degree.
This isn’t new of course, but it’s beginning to become a much more important factor in how Brown and Brown views data these days. When shrapnel from Gray Grenades land in concentrated bunches, it’s news the real estate investor should follow with real interest. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on April 22, 2008 @ 11:33 pm - Written by BawldGuy
Was talking with a client today, when she brought up a common misnomer. “Shouldn’t we be buying 10-20% below market value? Isn’t it a buyer’s market?” Great question. (Thanks Brandi) The answer may surprise some. It falls under, ‘Ya can’t have it both ways’.
Though in the last year or so we’ve been able to secure clients some impressive discounts, most of the circumstances making those discounts possible have changed.
Let’s think this through. Demand for well located real estate is increasing in the regions in which we do business. This is a good thing. Take Austin — a place we no longer do business. Don’t get me wrong, we love the place, but the demand has increased to the point prices have made it relatively unattractive to investors. The rent/price ratio has degenerated to the point where investors must now put enlarged down payments in order to break even.
See? On one hand you have the good news showing the Austin area roaring back from the market correction. On the other hand you have the consequences of that same good news. A double edged sword just waiting for the inexperienced investor. Higher prices driven by significantly increased demand, outpacing rents, (Increased rents will very soon follow, but not fast enough in Austin.) results in investors looking elsewhere. Why spend your hard earned capital in Austin for $X worth of property, when you can go to friendlier areas and acquire $2X worth of property? If capital growth is numero uno on your agenda, investing in half the property you could prudently afford makes zero sense.
Now let’s consider the project begging folks to buy their stuff at deep discounts. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on March 13, 2008 @ 9:54 pm - Written by BawldGuy
As written recently on these pages the internet isn’t the end all be all for data collection — especially income property stats. One of the most egregious errors a real estate investor can make is the purchase of a property based upon erroneous rent assumptions. Since it’s called ‘income’ property one would assume it’s potential to garner that income would be important. One might even take it a step further and insist on empirical evidence. 
Way back in the days of pen and paper, the only acceptable way to acquire concretely reliable rent info was to hit the pavement — literally. Grab yer clipboard and yer basic comfortable shoes and start walkin’ and knockin’. I’ve been doing exactly that since the late ’70’s. It’s not sexy work, trust me. Though most people are more than happy to help, some folks can get downright rude.
BawldGuy Axiom: Nothing beats first hand research done at street level, in person — nothing. The gold standard for research is always first hand — their lips to your ears — in person. Hearsay just doesn’t cut it.
Still, when a client asks us what makes us so confident in our rental figures as stated on our after tax cash flow analysis, we grin and pull out ours, or sometimes our team’s rental survey. (Note: The minute I find out a team member hasn’t done a required rent survey, they’re fired.) This isn’t done by phone, fax, email, or channeling the local apartment tenants in an area. You do what needs to be done — you knock on doors yourself. 
Management firms will tell you, “You’ll easily command $XXXX a month in rent for that unit — no problem.” When it ain’t their butts on the line, it’s never ‘a problem’. Most management firms make their rental decisions based upon their own relative convenience. I ran my own management division for a decade and know what it takes — and it ain’t hangin’ ’round the office when you’re not sure of what the rents should be.
Agents/brokers will be smother. “Our experience in the area says you should get this amount.” Whereupon they give up a number. Rely on that number the same Mom relied on me having all my homework done before bedtime.
Builders are the comedians of potential rents. It’s long been my theory they size you up and decide in the middle of their answer what rent figure to give you. If they discern I’m from California, it goes up at least 10%. Exceptions: I’ve met two builders in the last 18 months who gave me rents backed up with empirical evidence — one in the Kansas City area, and one in the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex area.
Short diversion.
The first thing a California real estate investment broker/advisor learns when leaving the state is the strange thing that happens to their forehead — In bold lettering a message appears. CALIFORNIA FRUIT LOOP — I’LL BELIEVE ANYTHING.
Tomorrow I’ll give specifics on how I’ve conducted rent surveys over the last 30 years. I’ve learned a ton, and it’s all come in handy. Meanwhile, keep this in mind: Buying investment property without slam dunk, sun-settin’-in-the-west reliability is foolhardy at best and a quick way to lose a bunch of your hard earned money at worst.
Remember: It’s called income property for a reason.
Posted on February 22, 2008 @ 12:05 am - Written by BawldGuy
This market, for the most part, is terrible. Plain and simple, it’s a long way from just being down a tad. Though not nearly the worst I’ve seen, it’s bad enough. Is it bad enough for you too?
What would motivate you to trigger a tax deferred (1031) exchange into another region in another state? I promise to give you more than one reason.
We’ll get back to that.
There are a couple reasons, generically speaking, motivating folks to invest or execute a tax deferred exchange. One is to end up with more money than they have now. The other is to create more cash flow (income) than they have now. Sophisticated stuff, eh?
The people reasons are infinite, and for the most part absolutely appropriate. Obviously whether for growth or income, retirement is the #1 reason people invest in real estate. The end game is always the same — the highest retirement income possible. They also want to easily pay for their kids’ education. Or be able to take care of their parents if necessary.
Let’s take a mini-detour here for a BawldGuy Axiom: More is better than less. Sooner is better than later. More, sooner, is much mo’ better.
Paradox: Sometimes selling for less, means ending up with more.
Focus on what’s happening now. Loan underwriting has been tightened. (New candidate for understatement of the year.) Selling real estate has become more difficult, or as we’ve discovered in some markets, more than difficult. Prices have gone down — more or less in different markets. The plain truth is, your property isn’t worth what it used to be. Usually though, it’s just not that big of a deal.
Let me show you why.
Investors who wish to sell in this market think denial is a valuable trait. They don’t respond well to the naked facts of today’s market reality. Sometimes they’re even unkind. That’s because maybe they haven’t thought this market all the way through.
Now it’s time to ‘get back to that’.
I’ve been through this kinda market a few times before. You know, the whole been there, done that thing. The script doesn’t change. The scenery is different, but that’s about it. This correction is worse than ‘74-’75 — but not as ugly as the early ’90’s. Many, including Warren Buffet most recently, have made the observation that the early ’80’s were worse. It’s not close, at least so far.
There are some real perks to a down market for those in the right position, and armed with a well thought out Purposeful Plan.
Let’s talk about what the right position is.
The rightest position is having a boatload of cash burning a hole in your Levi’s. Next best? An investment property(s) with sufficient equity to do some serious damage. The next in line is your home with lots of accessible and affordable equity. Affordable meaning, of course, you can make the potentially increased monthly payments that could result when taking money out.
For now, we’ll bypass 1 & 3. Both involve showing up as the Buyer With Cash, which in this market, doesn’t exactly make you a pariah. Instead, let’s talk about the investors holding income property with a good bit of equity.
Let’s not get caught in the trap in which amateurs sometimes find themselves. They’ll use a formula found in some real estate investment book, telling them to make their move once their equity reaches a particular percentage of the property’s value. For instance, 40%. That figure might work well in one region, while it’s seriously way late in another.
There are too many factors involved to handcuff yourself to impotent one size fits all templates. Numbers may or may not work the same in different regions. Kingman, Arizona ain’t Mansfield, Texas. Southern California isn’t Boise, and Kansas City is just not comparable to Phoenix.
This is where the pro comes in. I’m in San Diego. Let’s say you’re in, ah, Kansas City. A duplex in San Diego goes these days for $450-700,000 give or take. In Kansas City you could probably go to Duplexes R Us and get 2-3 duplexes for that much. So if you have a SD duplex worth $600,000 with only $200,000 gross equity, the average owner would probably role their eyes at the thought of exchanging their equity elsewhere — especially in this market.
Looking more closely, we see the net equity of the SD duplex is a little over $150,000. If that were a brand new KC duplex, with a value of $235,000 and the same percentage equity to value — the net would be far less, around $60,000.
Let’s also agree the prices for both properties are easily less than they’d have received a couple years ago. Hence, the anxiety. “Why should I exchange, losing money in the process?” Of course, that’s a false statement based upon a false premise. (Again, more on that one later.) Because your value has fallen from its high point, doesn’t mean you’ve lost money. It simply means your crystal ball failed you — again — not telling you the exact day the damn thing was worth the most.
What’s the most relevant question at this point?
Easy.
Will a tax deferred (1031) exchange result in your position being significantly improved? Yes? or No? If it’s not a no-brainer — don’t do it.
In many of today’s growth regions an exchanger can better their position — sometimes more than significantly. The SD investor? (Or, just for giggles, how ’bout the Palo Alto investor? Their prices make San Diego look like the Dollar Store.) He could easily go from selling a single, 40 year old duplex to owning nearly $1.5 Million in new or nearly new properties. The KC guy? His net wasn’t nearly as much, but given the same opportunity, they could just as easily acquire triple (or almost) the value of what they left — really. No kiddin’.
Still, I hear the whispering.
That is pretty cool, but don’t you understand, we’re taking a ‘loss’ here. Why do that?
I’ll let the ‘loss’ propaganda pass. You don’t think anyone’s actually feeling sorry for you, do you?
In today’s markets, we’re negotiating deals for our clients, some as buyers, some as exchangers, saving them literally thousands of dollars. In some cases, this is not only in property value discounts, 
but upfront money too. Money in various costs and immediately require capital expenditures. Even when the deal is fine without a discount, our clients are miles ahead of where they started.
Huh? What’d he just say?
Either no closing costs, or 60-80% reduced closing costs.
Other credits based upon the property and lender.
In the most recent transactions — most recent meaning they haven’t even closed escrow yet — the average upfront savings (credits/upgrades) per client turns out to be over $15,000! Add to that the properties were bought as duplexes but will be sold as two separate units, and what have you discovered?
Again — easy.
All that money you ‘lost’? You made it all back and more simply by closing escrow on your exchange.
We won’t even talk about the next 10 years, except to make one observation. 
The difference in capital growth and additional cash flow over that period of time, will be easily measured in hundreds of thousands, if not in excess of a million dollars. It’s my intention you take that statement literally. Your choices could be crying in your beer about ‘what could have been’, or breakin’ out the champagne to celebrate your great judgment.
In the case of the SD investor, who thought they’d lost over $50,000? They gained $60,000 by their ability to buy with almost no closing costs, loan points, or paying for various upgrades. I’ll grant you it sounds pretty mundane, so I’ll make you a deal. If you don’t want the savings, pass ‘em on to me.
So far, I’ve already had a client who was able to purchase an extra ‘bonus’ property as a direct result of all the savings on his earlier purchases. That extra property will result in at least an additional half a million bucks over the next 15-20 years. Again — please take that statement literally.
Seriously, most of the properties available today, can be acquired with prudent leverage — as were the properties mentioned above. In fact, each of those properties, very conservatively speaking, were put into escrow for our clients with low downs, and fixed rate loans. They all break even or better.
Now, I double-dog dare you to tell me again about how much you’ll lose by selling your properties?
If you come here regularly, you know I like to have fun while passing on my experience and expertise.
Today was no different, but there’s a serious lesson to learn here.
Even without gaining any of the advantages shown so far, you can still sell for far less than you think your property’s worth and come out way ahead.
Think about what happens when you triple the value of what your equity controls. In SD you’re going up what, 0% a year lately? It’s far more likely decreased in value, and you’re acutely aware of that fact. Imagine our guy with the SD duplex, selling for $600,000 — ending up with nearly $1.5 Million in property. At only 3.5% appreciation the first year of ownership, he’ll have made more than $52,000 in increased value. Surveys show that beats 0% on $600,000 11 times outa 10.
Furthermore, they’re now in a much more flexible position, as instead of one property, they now have six. They’re all new. Their tax shelter has nearly quadrupled. Their capital growth rate has almost shot off the chart. And please folks, remember that capital growth, NOT appreciation is the name of the game.
Oh, and by the way — their yearly after tax cash flow has gone from about $5,000 to $15,000.
Not exchanging out of areas like California (Which includes you, Palo Alto.), Arizona, the northwest, and almost the entire midwest, makes no sense.
This is the kinda market where selling for a so called loss is actually the most profitable thing you could do. Really. 
Moving your equity, when it’s (And therefore, you too.) essentially mired in quicksand, puts your Purposeful Plan back into the game. Until you, as a real estate investor, realize this, your Plan will remain on hold. (stuck?) Meanwhile, your life isn’t on hold, and more importantly, well — tick tock. Another year, another birthday.
Time stops for nobody.
Don’t be captive to the whims of the market. Instead, turn this market into your personal capital growth machine. Learn how to win by selling for what everyone else thinks is a loss.
In this market you can truly lose your way into a far superior position.
Try it, you’ll like it. Be dumb like a fox.