It would have Brown & Brown working around the clock moving folks Outa Dodge.

That would be an ironic twist, wouldn’t it? Raised expenses gets them off the dime, but 4-5 years of their investments becoming more and more unattractive to the experienced and knowledgeable investor didn’t phase them.

Go figure.

Thanks for the age of property for SD backup. For outsiders it was a great eye opener. I doubt San Diegans learned anything though, as so many are on a first name basis with all their repair guys.

YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
2000 or later 9.6%
1990 to 1999 11.0%
1980 to 1989 19.6%
1960 to 1979 38.7%
1940 to 1959 16.3%
1939 or earlier 4.8%

It’s great that we’ve got a nice conversational tone but don’t mistake that for people like Jeff not having the facts to back up the talk.

With a deficit of ~$18b and that only because of taking on an additional $3.5b in new debt and the term limits unchanged I can easily foresee some significant shennagins in Sacramento starting about the time the figures for income tax receipts are calculated. Residential Prop 13 is as you note sacrosanct but I keep hearing about “splitting the tax rolls.” That could pass and might find rentals on the wrong side of the line. More likely however may be the elimination of investment property interest against regular income. I don’t need to tell you what that would do to investor calculus.

The age thing in San Diego is gonna bite income property owners HARD. That’s of course one of the main reasons we’re launching a campaign to get them outa Dodge.

Prop 13? It’s a constitutional amendment, so any change would have to be with a super majority of either the state legislature or the public. Not much chance of that.

Any politician even giving audible sound to a thought like that will find themselves in a new profession soon thereafter.

It’s possible they’d try to tax those fleeing the state. After Gov. Davis’s experience with driving business from CA and losing his office because of it, one would think Reps and Senators would think long and hard before trying that approach again. But then that would indicate a thoughtful and rational approach, wouldn’t it?

Although Harvard would make a good “back-up choice” while he waits to hear from the others.

BTW, let you son know that UCSD is n a beautiful area whereas UCLA used to be. As for Harvard… all hat and no cattle. Princeton is twice the education and direct from the professors.

The age factor is a big issue. A lot of the stock is on its last botox injection and face lift. Looks great until the end. Blame our weather and such. Anything before earthquake standards is going to be tres expensive to rehab and unlikely to be able to command rents that justify complete replacement. I don’t need to tell you my advice is to make it someone else’s problem.

I didn’t talk about taxes. Angry people do foolish things. Prop 13 and any number of other possible changes are being proposed. My last post talked about taxing RE transfers out of state. nothing but bad news there either.

One small bit of good news, my eldest is still considering UCSD vs UCLA and is only waiting for Harvard before choosing. One more renter can’t hurt.

Also, how ’bout the age factor in California? There’s gonna be a real problem in San Diego due to the number of income properties having their 30th 40th and 50th birthdays. Now the poor owners have to decide between expensive and ongoing repairs, or biting the bullet and either trading outa Dodge, or opening their wallet for a complete rehab.

That movie was ripe with quotes, and most of them made you miss the next line or two.

Anyway, the thing about California investment/income producing RE is that all the good news is “baked in” and and there is no provision for bad news even now. I see deteriorating pricing power and inexorable cost increases. I cannot think of a single recurring expense that isn’t going or about to go much higher. If I may be permitted an observation; insurance is likely to be the next shoe. Far too low for too long because insurance companies reinvest as part of keeping policies cheaper. That hasn’t worked out of late. What good is a 6.3% rent increase in the face of energy and insurance?

My Caddyshack quote: “See your future, be your future.”

I’m wondering what a Brown & Brown balloon would look like? Bawld maybe?

Pretty innovative for Japan.

I do have to agree with Robert:

start making too much sense you’ll run out of people to sell too

I know you like to fly under the radar, but ideas like this will have you floating out there more visable than the ReMax balloon.

Maybe you could write some articles on why San Diego is no good for your clients. Similar to Rodney Dangerfield in Caddyshack

Al Czervik: Oh, this is the worst-looking hat I ever saw. What, when you buy a hat like this I bet you get a free bowl of soup, huh? [looks at Judge Smails, who’s wearing the same hat]
Al Czervik: Oh, it looks good on you though.