Comments on: Always Wonder What Certain Terms Mean? Real Estate Definitions http://www.bawldguy.com/always-wonder-what-certain-terms-mean-real-estate-definitions/ Real Estate Investing through Purposeful Planning Wed, 20 Aug 2008 02:48:46 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.11 by: Landflip http://www.bawldguy.com/always-wonder-what-certain-terms-mean-real-estate-definitions/#comment-8061 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 02:20:38 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/always-wonder-what-certain-terms-mean-real-estate-definitions/#comment-8061 Thank you for sharing the definitions. Yes...I did enjoy the pictures! Thank you for sharing the definitions. Yes…I did enjoy the pictures!

]]> by: BawldGuy http://www.bawldguy.com/always-wonder-what-certain-terms-mean-real-estate-definitions/#comment-8023 Sat, 26 Apr 2008 01:19:11 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/always-wonder-what-certain-terms-mean-real-estate-definitions/#comment-8023 Thanks Sean -- So many advances in various disciplines have come form outside the house, so to speak. I remember when Maxwell Maltz, a plastic surgeon, came up with psycho-cybernetics, still highly respected today. I observe two factors immediately. First, based upon current events, both lenders and borrowers will not, in my view, allow something so predictable as a peak in adjustments on loans become a huge problem. That begs the question immediately brought to mind by my second factor -- human behavior. I'm trying to concoct circumstances under which fully three years warning isn't enough time for rational solutions. Both lenders and borrowers will deal with this. Using the income tax cuts of the '80's as an example, Keynesian economics couldn't fathom how the 'cut' in marginal rates could possibly do what Art Laffer insisted it would. Hindsight shows it was exactly as Laffer predicted -- income increased such that in the two presidential terms '81-89, the income via income/corp. taxes increased by 95%! Human behavior changes based upon changing circumstances and perception of benefit vs harm. Hey, we should write that one down. :) Though there may be U.S. markets still suffering by 2011, it's my firm belief they will be the exceptions and not the rule. Thanks again Sean. Always a pleasure. Thanks Sean — So many advances in various disciplines have come form outside the house, so to speak. I remember when Maxwell Maltz, a plastic surgeon, came up with psycho-cybernetics, still highly respected today.

I observe two factors immediately.

First, based upon current events, both lenders and borrowers will not, in my view, allow something so predictable as a peak in adjustments on loans become a huge problem.

That begs the question immediately brought to mind by my second factor — human behavior. I’m trying to concoct circumstances under which fully three years warning isn’t enough time for rational solutions. Both lenders and borrowers will deal with this.

Using the income tax cuts of the ’80’s as an example, Keynesian economics couldn’t fathom how the ‘cut’ in marginal rates could possibly do what Art Laffer insisted it would. Hindsight shows it was exactly as Laffer predicted — income increased such that in the two presidential terms ‘81-89, the income via income/corp. taxes increased by 95%!

Human behavior changes based upon changing circumstances and perception of benefit vs harm. Hey, we should write that one down. :)

Though there may be U.S. markets still suffering by 2011, it’s my firm belief they will be the exceptions and not the rule.

Thanks again Sean. Always a pleasure.

]]> by: Sean Carr http://www.bawldguy.com/always-wonder-what-certain-terms-mean-real-estate-definitions/#comment-8018 Fri, 25 Apr 2008 14:51:14 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/always-wonder-what-certain-terms-mean-real-estate-definitions/#comment-8018 I'm off topic today but came a cross something to share. Yesterday, Morgan Brown on his blog Blown Mortgage, displayed an interesting chart from Credit Suisse which adds the Option Adjustable Rate resets to the sub-prime chart we’ve all seen. I was surprised by the percentage of these loans and also that the peak doesn’t occur until late 2011. The reset schedule reminded me of an interesting article which I thought was well done in attempting to answer how long downtrends in RE usually take, and extrapolating from that historical analysis, how long the current cycle will last. There seems to be some correlation, to me anyway, between the two sources. The analysis comes from an unlikely source, The Institute for Theoretical and High Energy Physics in Paris. The author undertakes a statistical based analysis based on past cycles and it’s notable that written in July 05, he makes the uncanny prediction that RE would peak in the early part of 06 (refer to figure 9 in the paper). Anyway I won’t spoil the conclusion and let you read the statistical prediction for the bottom of this trend. The paper can be found at the following web address: http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/physics/pdf/0605/0605133v1.pdf or Google the article “Real Estate Price Peaks: A Comparative Overview” Bertrand M. Roehner. It should be the first link. It presents some interesting statistics for thought without taking a Bullish or Bearish slant. Whether the author can predict the bottom as well remains to be seen but I had a good laugh reflecting that a decent paper on economics was written by a Physicist. Cheers. I’m off topic today but came a cross something to share. Yesterday, Morgan Brown on his blog Blown Mortgage, displayed an interesting chart from Credit Suisse which adds the Option Adjustable Rate resets to the sub-prime chart we’ve all seen. I was surprised by the percentage of these loans and also that the peak doesn’t occur until late 2011. The reset schedule reminded me of an interesting article which I thought was well done in attempting to answer how long downtrends in RE usually take, and extrapolating from that historical analysis, how long the current cycle will last. There seems to be some correlation, to me anyway, between the two sources. The analysis comes from an unlikely source, The Institute for Theoretical and High Energy Physics in Paris. The author undertakes a statistical based analysis based on past cycles and it’s notable that written in July 05, he makes the uncanny prediction that RE would peak in the early part of 06 (refer to figure 9 in the paper). Anyway I won’t spoil the conclusion and let you read the statistical prediction for the bottom of this trend. The paper can be found at the following web address:

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/physics/pdf/0605/0605133v1.pdf

or Google the article “Real Estate Price Peaks: A Comparative Overview” Bertrand M. Roehner. It should be the first link.

It presents some interesting statistics for thought without taking a Bullish or Bearish slant. Whether the author can predict the bottom as well remains to be seen but I had a good laugh reflecting that a decent paper on economics was written by a Physicist.

Cheers.

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