A Real Estate Investor Asked What Might Make Us Pass On A Potential New Region?

Posted @ 11:06 pm - Filed under Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Markets, Market Correction, Investment Lessons, Investment Physics, RE Investment Practice, Texas

Let’s assume even the greenest beginner would know to stay away from obvious war zones, or highly depressed areas. What might they miss when looking over a potential region as a home for their investment capital? Well, there are plenty of important factors, but one in particular always sends us packin’ for greener pastures.

It’s how the local and state governments view business in general and income property/real estate development specifically. This is way crucial to many of our first impressions of a region new to us.

So what are we looking to find out?

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How are landlords treated by the courts? Is it like much of California where tenants nearly have to commit a major felony on FBI video in order to be evicted in less than a dog’s year? Or is it like other states we like very much — tenants are treated fairly and with respect, but thrown out when they violate the contract and the landlord wants it enforced by the courts.

See, when tenants have a soul-deep belief that the courts aren’t disposed to the entitlement approach to landlord/tenant relations, the landlord/owner doesn’t feel like they have a de facto partner. :) The courts in regions favoring that viewpoint will gently, or in some cases, not so gently, remind tenants whose property it is. There are many states which we don’t even like to fly over because of their attitude toward business, investment capital, and income property owners. :)

This has nothing to do with politics, as some might suspect. Sure, it’s a political ideology driving both sides of this coin. In the end though, it’s the atmosphere created by government policy, both local and state, that drive the consequences, often times unintended, for business and income property.

If the tenant is looked upon as a victim until proven otherwise, the investor has a problem. Contracts in those areas tend to become lists of suggestions for tenants to consider. I suggestion boxcontend contracts aren’t paper analogies for suggestion boxes. Meanwhile, their landlords are often held to a far higher standard.

Why would we purposefully bring investors into that atmosphere? History shows if that approach remains intact and unchallenged for long periods of time, values suffer. Why? It’s because experienced real estate investors don’t like to go where they’re not wanted, or treated unfairly

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An environment friendly to business is essential because your tenant needs a job. Duh. The more jobs, the more demand for your product — a place to rent. While California’s policies chased many businesses to other states, Arizona, Idaho, and Texas to name three, made it clear they were welcome to settle in their states. “What can we do to make you feel more comfortable?” they asked. :) Why do you think those three states are always among the elite when the lists come out with the best job creating regions?

So when we say we’ve ‘passed’ on a region, ask yourself a question.

What is your perception of that state’s policy towards business? Even during the last 2½ years of sometimes brutally falling real estate values, Phoenix has not only maintained their reputation as a superior job generator, they actually moved up to #1 job generating county in the nation. Businesses go where they’re wanted — and so do smart real estate investors. When this market correction leaves us, Phoenix, in my opinion, will live up to its name. Why? Because they’ve been adding jobs, increasing population, and amassing some serious pent up demand.

Remember, you heard it here first. :) baseball in glove

If we’re seriously considering taking our clients to a new region, our first test is local and state government’s attitude toward business and investment capital. If they don’t want us, we don’t want them. We don’t mind competing — but we do insist on an even playing field.

Otherwise?

We take our ball and go home.

This entry was posted on Thursday, April 3rd, 2008 at 11:06 pm and is filed under Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Markets, Market Correction, Investment Lessons, Investment Physics, RE Investment Practice, Texas. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

8 comments to “A Real Estate Investor Asked What Might Make Us Pass On A Potential New Region?”

Robert Coté on April 4th, 2008 at 5:13 am said:

  • No doubt you’ve seen: http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20080403005117&newsLang=en
    HomeVestors Names Top 10 Cities for Real Estate Investing for First Quarter of 2008

    DALLAS–(BUSINESS WIRE)–HomeVestors® of America, Inc., the company famous for its “We Buy Ugly Houses”® billboards and America’s #1 Home Buyer, has named the top 10 markets for real estate investing in the first quarter of 2008. They are as follows:

    1. Dallas, Texas
    2. Houston, Texas
    3. Atlanta, Georgia
    4. Fort Worth, Texas
    5. St. Louis, Missouri
    6. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
    7. San Antonio, Texas
    8. Denver, Colorado
    9. Minneapolis, Minnesota
    10. Phoenix, Arizona
    —-
    Some might look familiar to regular readers. ;-)

    Anyway here’s my hyper abbreviated concern about Phoenix:
    http://bp3.blogger.com/_zqzPMzXNGso/R_YZm9GU5lI/AAAAAAAABkA/HmmhSpTy6V8/s1600-h/Picture+1.png

    The red line is Phoenix “lower tier” pricing. The black line is the composite for #3 Atlanta for reference. My concern is about pricing authority. There is a huge supply of product purchased at 2004 and before prices in Phoenix that can potentially massively undercut any investment made today. The vacancy factor and revenue increase divisor have got to be huge in any reasonable analysis scenario. Talk to me about Phoenix when inventory drops below 30,000 which at the current sales rate and supply line should be 2+ years.

    P.S. I have no idea why Philly is on this list.

BawldGuy on April 4th, 2008 at 10:19 am said:

  • Thanks Robert — The help is much appreciated. I saw this list, along with it’s companion ‘worst’ list the other day. Denver made both lists. :) Both times, if memory serves, they were #8. Go figure.

    Phoenix will absolutely have to rid itself of all the excess inventory. We disagree on how long, as it’s my view the sales rate is never a static factor. It’s hostage to market perception of course, which will dramatically change once the tipping point is reached directionally on the chart.

    Know what I mean, Verne? :)

    If it does take Phoenix that long, we may be witness to the most amazing V recovery in decades in that region. The population hasn’t stopped increasing during this correction. Nor has the job creation, which has actually made Maricopa County the #1 job creation county in the country.

    If that isn’t a recipe for impressive pent up demand, I don’t know what is. As usual, we’ll just have to wait and watch it play itself out.

    Thanks again, Robert.

Robert Coté on April 4th, 2008 at 11:07 am said:

  • Can I get a little devil with a pitchfork avatar to sit on the bawldguy’s shoulder?

    For the record I am not a bear, only currently bearish. Huge difference.

    That said, the following is not “disagree” just adding more to the discussion. One of the problems with the “adding population” projections is how extraordinarily sensitive they are to extremely minor behavioral shifts. Nationally, if one household our of 10 picked up an extra occupant there would generate an additional 4 million dwelling unit surplus. In the case of Phoenix more total people was a strong driver of housing demand. Now that so many are under “house arrest” as I call it they are aging in place and family size is growing. Don’t even get me started on divorces delayed because of the housing consequences. Another 180 degree reversal.

    San Diego County, California Occupied housing units 1,039,619
    HOUSEHOLD SIZE
    1-person household 25.6%
    2-person household 31.9%
    3-person household 16.0%
    4-or-more-person household 26.4%

    Maricopa County, Arizona Occupied housing units 1,322,104
    HOUSEHOLD SIZE
    1-person household 26.6%
    2-person household 33.0%
    3-person household 15.0%
    4-or-more-person household 25.4%

    I know that seems small and tough to interpret but it tells me that it is likely that Phoenix won’t resume their past youthful housing formative segment in-migration patterns.

    Still let me repeat my big concern it a different way. The recent 30 month period doubling of home prices leaves a near inexaustible source of lower rent pressure potential amateur landlords. I don’t mind a cutthroat professional fight but I see no benefit for getting in the ring with people who don’t know what they are doing who also enjoy half the cost basis I would carry.

BawldGuy on April 4th, 2008 at 2:12 pm said:

  • I like the image every now and then of a pitch fork wielding avatar on my shoulder. :)

    Your points are well made. Especially the uneven battle with those coming in now at far lower prices. Still, population there has increased through consistent and impressive in-migration. They’re there for one reason — the jobs are there, and they’re good jobs to boot. In fact there are more jobs by far than people to fill them in many cases.

    That is the pent up demand San Diego just doesn’t have. Also, not all the new population (since 8/05 are gonna be home buyers. They will tend to ameliorate the whole supply/demand on the rental unit side.

    I’m with you when it comes to competing against the amateurs. They make things more difficult at times than need be. My faith is ultimately in the market itself. Otherwise I’d go screaming into the night sometimes. :)

Robert Coté on April 4th, 2008 at 3:05 pm said:

  • First a moment of well deserved punishment via a self administered dope slap to my forehead. Sorry. “40 month doubling” in Phoenix medians. Mere typo but but unlike the Bloodhound I think it important to make corrections to past posts when I make a mistake for whatever reason.

    Phoenix is most likely better than San Diego. Like I’ve said many times, we sometimes might only be discussing the frosting and not the cake. San Antonio, DFW, Austin are are by the same measures likely even better still.

    IMHO Phoenix has a few short term negatives and many long term positives. Almost the reverse of “Dodge” and “Dodge North” (aka my similar Ventura County). Short term there are still a quarter million units in Phoenix that sold anywhere between 4 and 7 years ago at purchase prices 1/3rd to 1/2 what you would pay today. If you think about it that’s one of the factors that make TX and GA attractive, there is demand and an investment commitment can directly address the supply/demand curve. Phoenix demand could be met by hundreds of thousands who have supply that isn’t counted.

    Do just a cursory search of the offerings. $900-$1000 SFR house rentals. Then $150k-$175k for sale. Sure the price of potential investment property is attractive by SoCal standards but the supply concerns me.

    Probably just an uneducated internet opinion but still…

BawldGuy on April 4th, 2008 at 3:15 pm said:

  • >Probably just an uneducated internet opinion but still…

    As usual Robert, sell that one to someone who’s buying. :)

    I’m not in the ’supply that isn’t counted’ camp, ‘cuz it’s nearly impossible not to have them counted in our stat-crazed world. I do know what you mean though.

    The homes selling for $150-300,000 will begin entering the ’sold zone’ on the MLS. As time passes, it’s my belief velocity will pick up. The whole FHA thing just might end up being a huge wild card in a very positive way. It’s already having impact in San Diego, at least according to some of my house agent buddies.

Robert Coté on April 4th, 2008 at 4:50 pm said:

  • ‘Tis your most excellent blog. Toss me out when you get tired of my whining or else buy me a beer to shut me up. Better, let me buy you cactus salsa and tortillas under the misters while the ribs are flame roasting.

    I seriously don’t want to beat to death or wear out my welcome or even so much as jostle you elbow but Phoenix to me looks dicy. Do you see me saying Austin/Dallas/Fort Worth is a stupid investment? I ain’t that dumb. Do you see me objecting to gettin’ outa Dodge? I ain’t that stupid. We are so much in agreement that maybe the little stuff looks bigger than it is. Phoenix?; IMO No, as of April 2008. Ask me again in 4-6 months and I will surely give you a different opinion. In 4-6 months Phoenix will be either the “V” you see or the stair step I worry about.

    I guess my point is that given choices there’s nothing in the current environment that recommends Phoenix.

    As always, you make a living doing this. I only make an investment.

    Highest regards.

BawldGuy on April 4th, 2008 at 5:34 pm said:

  • Robert — You’re on my A-List of favorite commenters. No worries.

    >Phoenix?; IMO No, as of April 2008. Ask me again in 4-6 months and I will surely give you a different opinion.

    I’ll tell you why that cracked me up. I’ve been contacted by no less than three solid Phoenix home agents — all of whom I know well, and respect. They’re all asking me when I’m gonna jump in — and here it comes — “‘cuz they’re breaking even or better with 20% down now!”

    Sorry, not impressed. I’m totally with you on this one. I’m keeping a close eye on the area, but that’s it ’till later.

    I just don’t see the stair step scenario.

    Of course, if you told me five years ago I’d be telling San Diego investors to Get Outa Dodge, I would have laughed out loud. Go figure.

    The investor has to believe before investing. It’s those who manage to comprehend the data first, who usually find themselves at the top of the mountain.

    Enjoy your weekend, Robert.

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