It’s insidious the way it works, isn’t it? Past performance can replicate itself to almost clone-like status, then the next time, BAM! you behave as if last time = this time, and you’re floating down the rapids without a paddle toward the falls.

We can learn from the past for sure. But one of those lessons will be that we always learn why it was a little (or a lot) different this time — AFTER we analyzed the situation with history’s glasses.

“There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch.” - Robert Anson Heinlein

Google it for a few thousand hits.

“Past performance is no indication of future returns.”

We don’t need to go over certain geographic areas where this should be glaringly obvious by now but I want to make another observation. Start with 16 idiots and 16 coins. Flip. 8 winners with 16 coins. Again and again. After only 4 years one idiot will be left and he will appear to be a genius. Don’t mistake survivor’s bias for competence. After the last 10 years of loaded dice it becomes even harder to make this call unless you go with a longer timeframe.